So to contextualize this, I also had some reservations about Poyser, but felt that some of his posts have been good enough to more or less shore up those reservations. So to see Ultra being as decisive as he is about his read felt off to me - he is not the same player as me, so I don't expect the same process, but I think his read lacks due consideration, and possibly is faking confidence. There is room for this to come from him as town too, so I'm not saying it makes him scum, but it's something that draws my attention. So to answer your question, I would say he feels performative in that he's taking a swing at Poyser moreso than he is genuinely coming to that read.
I liked Tempest's read on hime, Melkor, and while it came (I saw it rather) after I posted that, I liked his Evans read too. Like his read on you too but I don't have one on you really outside of a slight town lean on tone.
As for voting, too early for me to answer that. If I had to pick, I'd say Evans, because him coming in to take a swing at Flower is exactly what I would expect from him as scum and I've seen him do just that before.