VOTING LOG ANALYSIS DAY 1
Vote Count 1 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton
Boquise: Stick
Stick: Jay23
Jay: Hayumi
Stick: 2
Grammaton/Jay23/Hayumi: 1
From memory I was the first to lead a vote on Stick, which Boquise quickly followed.
Stick in turns voted for Jay23.
Lethal first votes me, then BradLand, then Grammaton.
Jay meanwhile votes for Hayumi.
Not enough data, but it's somewhat amusing to see the progression of 'I voted Stick, who voted Jay, who voted Hayumi'.
Lethal's manic changing of votes is the most odd thing, but one does have to ask if a wolf would voluntarily put themselves in the limelight like this so early.
Vote Count 2 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton
Boquise: Stick
Stick: Jay23
Jay: Hayumi
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal
Hayumi: BradLand
PepeBoi: Lappland
Stick: 2
Grammaton/Jay23/Hayumi/Atsumori/Lethal/BradLand/Lappland: 1
Aurelian, Alexis, Hayumi and PepeBoi (not in that order) add votes on 4 different people. Others have noted before that Aurelian's lead on Atsumori wasn't really explained there and just didn't make a whole let of sense.
Alexis votes Lethal based on their reads, Hayumi is the first one to vote Brad, and PepeBoi votes Lappland, I believe without any explanation.
A lot of these votes feel odd to me, mostly due to lack of logical progression (at least, an explained one), and it wouldn't surprise me at all if there's at least one mafia in this grouping of Aurelian/Alexis/hayumi/PepeBoi), although I would exclude Alexis based on my read of them so far.
Vote Count 3 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand >
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis
Boquise: Stick
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka
PepeBoi: Lappland >
Luka: Cataclysm
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
BradLand/Mlraka/Atsumori: 2
Alexis/Stick/Lethal/Cataclysm/Hayumi: 1
Duel Winner
Fuji: Fuji
Hayumi: Fuji
Mlraka: Fuji
Here's where the vote gets kind of interesting. Brad votes me, and Hayumi changes their vote from Brad to me for reasons that I still don't understand.
Grammaton also votes Brad, I don't recall if they explained why or not. Stick switches their vote from Jay23 to Atsumori, following Aurelian's lead on Atsumori.
I switch my vote from Stick to Brad, as they were so obviously mafia to me at the time.
We also see Arne vote for Cataclysm, but then somewhat quickly change to Brad.
Luka joins Arne's original vote on the Cataclysm vote, although I don't recall if this was before or after Arne switches to Brad.
A pattern I have noticed is that Arne generally makes short posts, giving a fairly simplistic reasoning. I am not entirely sure how to read this yet, as I don't know how they normally play, but this somewhat UTR approach to Day 1 is worth noting and potentially ISOing later.
Lethal also switches their vote to Alexis, for what appear to be more personal/emotional than game reasons.
I will talk about the duel results separately at the end of the post.
Vote Count 4 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis
Boquise: Stick
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi
PepeBoi: Lappland >
Luka: Cataclysm
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes
Lappland: Alexis
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori
Atsumori: 3
Alexis: 2
Sharter Holmes/Hayumi/BradLand/Mlraka/Cataclysm/Stick/PepeBoi/Lethal/Lappland/Aurelian: 1
We reach what I believe to be the first bandwagon of 3 people voting the same person, in Aurelian, Stick and Sharter Holmes voting Atsumori. Zenon's Law is a principle that states, regarding the first bandwagon in day 1 with 3+ people on it:
- If Atsumori is town, then at least one of Aurelian, Stick and Sharter Holmes is mafia. (Note that Sharter died last night, so that would narrow it down to Aurelian and Stick).
- If Atsumori is mafia, then all of Aurelian, Stick and Sharter are almost certainly town. (I don't see Atsumori being mafia so far, but we should note the possibility all the same).
Somehow I missed the Alexis votes from Lethal and Lappland. It appears this may be more of a 'policy' lynch against AI usage rather than necessarily their biggest fos of who is mafia.
I switch my vote from Brad to Aurelian, due to Aurelian's twisting of my words and inability to give legitimate reasons behind any of their reads.
Jay switches their vote from Hayumi to LappLand, I believe due to LappLand's relative lack of scumhunting contributions to the thread.
Alexis unvotes Lethal, but then votes Lethal again.
Hayumi switches their vote from me to PepeBoi, a player who had been flying a bit under the radar. In turn, Arne switches their vote from Brad to Hayumi, presumably unvoting Brad due to them losing the duel with Fuji.
Fuji self-votes before voting Sharter Holmes. Sharter transpired to be town, but that doesn't automatically make Fuji scummy.
Vote Count 5 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis
Boquise: Stick
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi
PepeBoi: Lappland >
Luka: Cataclysm
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes
Lappland: Alexis
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori
Atsumori: Boquise > Sharter Holmes
Atsumori: 3
Alexis/Sharter Holmes: 2
Brad/Mlraka/Hayumi/Cataclysm/PepeBoi/Lappland/Stick/Aurelian/Lethal: 1
This looks the same as the last vote count, except that Atsumori first votes Boquise (one of the stranger choices to my mind) before joining Fuji in voting Sharter Holmes. My vague recollection is that they felt Sharter was playing the same way that they normally would as scum, in looking very townie.
Vote Count 6 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis > Unvote
Boquise: Stick > Hayumi
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal > Jay23 > Aurelian
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi
PepeBoi: Lappland >
Luka: Cataclysm > Lappland > Unvote
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes
Lappland: Alexis > Lappland
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori
Atsumori: Boquise > Sharter Holmes
Atsumori: 3
Lappland/Aurelian/Hayumi/Sharter Holmes: 2
BradLand/Mlraka/PepeBoi: 1
Here is where we see a progression from a lot of players getting 1 vote, to many players getting 2 votes.
LappLand, Aurelian and Hayumi now get 2 votes, with Lethal unvoting Alexis and Lappland self-voting. I'm personally not a fan of people self-voting, but have seen it done enough now by both factions to consider it NAI in general.
Alexis first votes Jay23 before joining me in voting Aurelian. We can see that Alexis has a more individual approach to the game, having strong reads and the conviction to follow them and push them regardless of what anyone else thinks. I can't help but respect that.
Boquise switches their vote from Stick to Hayumi. Given how later events transpire, we can establish that Boquise is generally trusted by the town, and likely for good reason.
Vote Count 7 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis > Unvote
Boquise: Stick > Hayumi
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori > Lappland
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal > Jay23 > Aurelian > Lethal > Lappland
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi > Lappland > Sharter Holmes
PepeBoi: Lappland >
Luka: Cataclysm > Lappland > Unvote
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi > Lappland > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes
Lappland: Alexis > Lappland
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori
Atsumori: Boquise > Sharter Holmes
Lappland: 4
Sharter Holmes: 3
Hayumi/Atsumori: 2
Brad/Mlraka/Aurelian: 1
The bandwagon on LappLand (who had been mostly focusing on Alexis's AI usage to this point) evolves, with Stick switching from Atsumori to LappLand and Alexis switching from Aurelius to Lethal to LappLand. This prompts LappLand to finally start giving some reads and FoS's on the game.
Sharter gets a 3rd vote from Hayumi (who had previously voted LappLand).
The votes are becoming increasingly chaotic, with Hayumi and Alexis submitting a vote 6 times, Arne Slot submitting a vote 5 times, and Lethal submitting a vote 4 times before unvoting.
Given that extreme chaos is likely to benefit the mafia more than the town, it's not entirely unreasonable to speculate that there may be a mafia in Hayumi/Alexis/Arne Slot/Lethal, though like I said before, I don't think Alexis deserves to be in the conversation as they are one of my stronger townreads, so a mafia in Hayumi/Arne Slot/Lethal seems a reasonable theory.
The vote is so chaotic that it is hard for me to keep track of everything, but those seem the most critical points.
Vote Count 8 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis > Unvote
Boquise: Stick > Hayumi
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori > Lappland > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal > Jay23 > Aurelian > Lethal > Lappland
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi > Lappland > Sharter Holmes
PepeBoi: Lappland > Lappland
Luka: Cataclysm > Lappland > Unvote
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi > Lappland > Hayumi > Cata > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes > Cata > Hayumi
Lappland: Alexis > Lappland
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori > Cata > Hayumi
Atsumori: Boquise > Sharter Holmes
Hayumi/Lappland: 4
Atsumori/Sharter Holmes: 2
Brad/Mlraka/Aurelian: 1
This is where the Hayumi bandwagon starts to evolve, with Fuji and Sharter Holmes joining Arne Slot and Boquise in voting Hayumi. I believe this could have been a result of my early Day 1 Hayumi ISO, where I pointed out a lack of logical progression in Hayumi's reasoning for switching from Brad to me as their vote.
Fuji unvotes Sharter Holmes and votes Cataclysm, who Sharter also switches the vote to. The synchronicity between Fuji and Sharter Holmes' voting patterns at this point is rather uncanny, especially given that Fuji had voted for Sharter not long before that. Given that we saw Sharter flip town, this means a likely 'mindmeld'. To my mind, this somewhat vindicates Fuji as a townie, as if Fuji was a mafia trying to pocket Sharter, I don't think they would have voted them.
Nothing else jumps out at me here
Vote Count 9 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis > Unvote
Boquise: Stick > Hayumi
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori > Lappland > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal > Jay23 > Aurelian > Lethal > Lappland
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi > Lappland > Sharter Holmes >
PepeBoi: Lappland > Lappland
Luka: Cataclysm > Lappland > Unvote
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi > Lappland > Hayumi > Cata > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes > Cata > Hayumi >
Lappland: Alexis > Lappland > Jay > Hayumi > Atsumori
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori > Cata > Hayumi
Atsumori: Boquise > Sharter Holmes
Cataclysm: Hayumi
Hayumi: 5
Lappland/Atsumori: 3
Brad/Mlraka/Aurelian/Sharter Holmes: 1
Hayumi gets an additional vote (from Cataclysm, one of the less active players in the game who had not voted before this - not sure what to make of this more 'lurky' approach), and Atsumori gets an additional vote (from Lappland, who had voted Jay and Hayumi before settling on Atsumori - starting to show a chaotic voting progression like other players such as Arne).
Arne Slot changes their vote from Hayumi to Cataclysm, before changing back to Hayumi. It is interesting to note Arne's significant spike in activity closer to the end of the day, in contrast to being less active before, though this could potentially be explained by Easter holidays.
Nothing else jumps out at me here.
Vote Count 10 Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis > Unvote
Boquise: Stick > Hayumi
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori > Lappland > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal > Jay23 > Aurelian > Lethal > Lappland
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi > Lappland > Sharter Holmes >
PepeBoi: Lappland > Lappland
Luka: Cataclysm > Lappland > Unvote
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi > Lappland > Hayumi > Cata > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes > Cata > Hayumi > Cata
Lappland: Alexis > Lappland > Jay > Hayumi > Atsumori
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori > Cata > Hayumi
Atsumori: Boquise > Sharter Holmes
Cataclysm: Hayumi
Hayumi: 5
Lappland/Atsumori: 3
Brad/Mlraka/Aurelian/Sharter Holmes/Cataclysm: 1
I can't tell many differences here, other than Fuji switching their vote to Cataclysm and someone else voting Hayumi instead. I cnly see 4 votes for Hayumi though, maybe I'm just blind
Final Vote Count Day 1
Mlraka: Stick > BradLand > Aurelian
Lethal: Mlraka > BradLand > Grammaton > Alexis > Unvote
Boquise: Stick > Hayumi
Stick: Jay23 > Atsumori > Lappland > Atsumori
Jay: Hayumi > Lappland
Aurelian: Atsumori > Hayumi
Alexis: Lethal > Lethal > Jay23 > Aurelian > Lethal > Lappland
Hayumi: BradLand > BradLand > Mlraka > PepeBoi > Lappland > Sharter Holmes >
PepeBoi: Lappland > Lappland
Luka: Cataclysm > Lappland > Unvote
Arne Slot: Cataclysm > BradLand > Hayumi > Lappland > Hayumi > Cata > Hayumi
BradLand: Mlraka > Lappland
Grammaton: BradLand
Fuji: Fuji > Sharter Holmes > Cata > Hayumi > Cata > Hayumi
Lappland: Alexis > Lappland > Jay > Hayumi > Atsumori > Hayumi
Sharter Holmes: Atsumori > Cata > Hayumi
Atsumori: Boquise > Sharter Holmes
Cataclysm: Hayumi
Hayumi: 8
Lappland: 4
Brad/Aurelian/Sharter Holmes/Atsumori: 1
I was asleep near the end of the day so this is retrospectively from a loose memory of what I re-read back.
An attempt is made in the hour before the day ends (by Arne Slot) to get the majority on Hayumi, on the basis that a no lynch would be a net negative for town (I agree). In the end, Boquise, Aurelian, Arne Slot, Fuji, LappLand, Sharter Holmes and Cataclysm all vote for Hayumi, but this is not enough numbers to eliminate them. Aurelian and LappLand were the two to switch to Hayumi near the end.
LappLand gets the next most votes, from Jay, Alexis, PepeBoi and BradLand.
This is a weird vote, in that several of the players I am suspicious of make last minute changes to the vote. Whether this is because Hayumi is 'low hanging fruit' for the mafia to mislynch, or because Hayumi is just mafia that several of us have caught on to, remains to be seen. I'm more inclined to believe the latter so far, but I found Aurelian to be more scummy, hence my vote there (and reasoning behind it in my post) before I went to bed.
Duel Winner
Fuji: Fuji > Brad > Fuji
Hayumi: Fuji
Mlraka: Fuji
Arne Slot: Fuji
Luka: Brad > Fuji
Alexis: Fuji > Brad
Aurelian: Fuji
Sharter Holmes: Fuji
Boquise: Fuji > Brad > Fuji
Atsumori: Fuji
Stick: Brad
Cata: Fuji
Lethal: Fuji
Jay: Fuji
PepeBoi: Brad > Fuji
Brad: Brad
Lappland: Fuji
Fuji: 14
Brad: 3
Someone made an interesting point before about how the people who 'knew' Brad was town may have potentially been expressing TMI. Those candidates based on this vote would be Alexis and Stick, but I don't think the theory holds much water.
Otherwise there's probably not a whole lot to surmise from this, given how blatantly scummy Brad was in the day (and I'm standing by that even though they flipped town). Furthermore, after a slow start, Fuji proved themselves to be one of the more influential town members after all (though I don't think it was true at the time that Luka stated it), playing a significant role in beginning and then fostering the Hayumi bandwagon.
If Hayumi later flips mafia, then Fuji is almost certainly town.
If Hayumi later flips town, that doesn't completely incriminate Fuji, but it definitely would make them a fair bit more suspicious.
For now though, Fuji is a fairly solid town lean for me. I don't agree with whoever said that Fuji would be suspicious if Brad flipped town (which also feels like the sort of thing a scum might say to hedge and try to set up later mislynches, not to mention the potential TMI aspect of this).
This was a lot, I'm gonna take a bit of a break