That's under the assumption there's a cop.
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I wanted reads from Yoho on you.
Get in line
He does slack as town sometimes then picks it up after.Most definitely. Although at this point I haven’t seen him play scum so I have no idea if he’d act just as crazy. Cuz if not, he has the most obvious town tells ever.
I mean meow.
The move to make is a gradual shift towards lynching Cataclysm. Fuji lies there as an alternative wagon.
Im immortal
@The X 
I could see some towniness in some posts but youve been pretty tame so far sis, hope it picks up.I’ll say NAI for now but I’ll be keeping a close eye on Lethal as well
Let's say a player named Troll takes a particularly hard line on claims Day 1 and essentially argues that once a claim is made under pressure, the player should often be lynched. They were asked to claim because their play seemed suspicious, and the lynch should be based on that suspicion, not necessarily invalidated by the claim itself.
This works on a couple of assumptions. Even an uncounterclaimed Cop, particularly early in a game like this one, might still have a significant chance of being scum. The exact probability is impossible to determine without knowing the setup specifics (like the number of scum versus the number of actual Cops or other Power Roles), but it's rarely, if ever, a certainty they are Town just because they claimed uncounterclaimed on Day 1. Given this uncertainty, along with the fact that the Town already found this player suspicious enough to be pressured (although this isn't strictly necessary – a claim could come out of the blue), is lynching an uncounterclaimed role really such a bad idea?
Troll believes that regardless of how the exact math works out for this specific setup, a player claiming a Power Role under pressure on Day 1 likely has a higher probability of being scum than the average player in the game.
In this setup, we don't know the exact ratio of scum to Power Roles. However, assuming that most scum would claim a Power Role on Day 1 if they are about to be lynched, and assuming players have a roughly equal chance of looking suspicious, there could plausibly be as many, or even more, fake claims as real claims emerging under pressure on Day 1. Troll suspects there might often be more fake claims in such situations but hasn't crunched the numbers for this specific game, as the setup details aren't fully known. Troll fundamentally thinks that there's often a better-than-average chance of hitting scum than Town when lynching a claimed Power Role on Day 1, especially one already under suspicion.
If Town has a better-than-average chance of hitting scum (which seems likely when considering lynching a claimed PR under pressure on Day 1), they should strongly consider taking it. The potential reward of lynching scum early often outweighs the risk of lynching a Town PR. Any other attitude potentially enables fake claims, allowing scum to survive at least one day longer than they might have otherwise, simply because they made a claim when cornered. Hesitating to lynch such claims can lead to negative outcomes where scum survive by fake claiming. Therefore, Troll believes the strategy of lynching regardless of the claim, when the player was already suspicious enough to be pushed for one, has strategic merit.
One must also consider that scum win by inducing mislynches. Putting off a potentially correct lynch by even one day, allowing scum to survive due to a claim, can significantly shift the game in their favor. An aggressive stance on Day 1 claims might give scum fewer maneuvering options. If lynching suspicious claimants becomes common practice, the "claim to save myself" tactic becomes less effective. This might also encourage Town Power Roles to play more carefully to avoid suspicion in the first place, knowing a claim might not save them.
Ultimately, what I'm trying to say here is that Town should aim to win games even without relying solely on Power Roles. Keeping PRs alive shouldn't necessarily be the primary concern on Day 1. Town should focus on lynching whoever seems scummiest based on reads and interactions. It's arguably the job of the Power Roles (even more than other Townies) to avoid falling into that suspicious spot. This approach will inevitably lead to PR lynches sometimes, but that's just part of the game.
And so, it is in best interest to lynch Cataclysm.
This works on a couple of assumptions. Even an uncounterclaimed Cop, particularly early in a game like this one, might still have a significant chance of being scum. The exact probability is impossible to determine without knowing the setup specifics (like the number of scum versus the number of actual Cops or other Power Roles), but it's rarely, if ever, a certainty they are Town just because they claimed uncounterclaimed on Day 1. Given this uncertainty, along with the fact that the Town already found this player suspicious enough to be pressured (although this isn't strictly necessary – a claim could come out of the blue), is lynching an uncounterclaimed role really such a bad idea?
Troll believes that regardless of how the exact math works out for this specific setup, a player claiming a Power Role under pressure on Day 1 likely has a higher probability of being scum than the average player in the game.
In this setup, we don't know the exact ratio of scum to Power Roles. However, assuming that most scum would claim a Power Role on Day 1 if they are about to be lynched, and assuming players have a roughly equal chance of looking suspicious, there could plausibly be as many, or even more, fake claims as real claims emerging under pressure on Day 1. Troll suspects there might often be more fake claims in such situations but hasn't crunched the numbers for this specific game, as the setup details aren't fully known. Troll fundamentally thinks that there's often a better-than-average chance of hitting scum than Town when lynching a claimed Power Role on Day 1, especially one already under suspicion.
If Town has a better-than-average chance of hitting scum (which seems likely when considering lynching a claimed PR under pressure on Day 1), they should strongly consider taking it. The potential reward of lynching scum early often outweighs the risk of lynching a Town PR. Any other attitude potentially enables fake claims, allowing scum to survive at least one day longer than they might have otherwise, simply because they made a claim when cornered. Hesitating to lynch such claims can lead to negative outcomes where scum survive by fake claiming. Therefore, Troll believes the strategy of lynching regardless of the claim, when the player was already suspicious enough to be pushed for one, has strategic merit.
One must also consider that scum win by inducing mislynches. Putting off a potentially correct lynch by even one day, allowing scum to survive due to a claim, can significantly shift the game in their favor. An aggressive stance on Day 1 claims might give scum fewer maneuvering options. If lynching suspicious claimants becomes common practice, the "claim to save myself" tactic becomes less effective. This might also encourage Town Power Roles to play more carefully to avoid suspicion in the first place, knowing a claim might not save them.
Ultimately, what I'm trying to say here is that Town should aim to win games even without relying solely on Power Roles. Keeping PRs alive shouldn't necessarily be the primary concern on Day 1. Town should focus on lynching whoever seems scummiest based on reads and interactions. It's arguably the job of the Power Roles (even more than other Townies) to avoid falling into that suspicious spot. This approach will inevitably lead to PR lynches sometimes, but that's just part of the game.
And so, it is in best interest to lynch Cataclysm.
Alexis bro, I appreciate the effort but we arent lynched a cop claim day 1. It should be self resolving.
Hayumi
Distinguished
Well, my vote is on Arne for a reason. What are your thoughts?@The X
I could see some towniness in some posts but youve been pretty tame so far sis, hope it picks up.
Hayumi
Distinguished
I love the intelligence in these paragraphs but well there’s a few flaws here in this logic and I’ll give you a super quick summary of why.
For starters, Cata was not under any real pressure at all. Literal hours into the day, and I don’t think a single vote had been placed on him at that point, nor any serious type of pressure. If anything he was getting brownie points by Fuji, etc and hadn’t said anything of note tbh beyond speculation of roles.
After a joke was made that there was an early “pregame” cop check on a player that’s not even here, he immediately jumped on claiming he was cop to disprove that claim, even though he should of actually read and not jumped to out himself, putting himself on a platter for scum lmao.
If he’s telling the truth he won’t be around very long at all, and if he is still alive for a while longer that’s just more reason to question him if he doesn’t begin to give any results throughout the game. For now, the chances of him telling the truth are pretty high and risking a lynch on him
would be about the worst way to go today. Hope this helps.
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