Kshaq - I think he's town. Overall, I believe he inflicted too much damage to his colleagues. I've written about his attitude to njay before and now, at eod, he quite doomed Poyser. Maybe others could bus Poyser like that, but kshaq is not the guy that mafia will have hopes about to live in the long run.
I'd be open for cooperation, kshaq. I'm aware that you might be worried after my last game. But consider that it'd have to be my second scum game in a row (and u know I hate that, think leek -> tinder) and it's been 6 days now and I'm not losing steam, even gaining it.
Czuek - so yeah - he was yelling to hammer Poyser 3 hours into d2. I don't think he'd do that to a colleague. After votecount, it turned out it wouldn't really be hammer, Poyser was still 2-3 votes away, so one could argue he knew Poyser would be safe (I think, but unpredicted reaction from Antura and me and Poyser'd be doomed. It's not super clear, but I'm feeling better way better now about him after this.
Bobek - I don't think he'd say to not lim Poyser like that as a scum. The guy's not an idiot. First he beat Lion to the ground and then he said we have to let Poyser live after his claim. He's dirty as hell. I don't think he'd end up in such position as scum.
" we wouldnt even lynch potential scum impersonating vig, chill
you are in hands of proffesionalists"
like, what the fuck, he'd never do such suicide xD
Hayumi - I think she's possible scum. After the d2 started, she didn't mention Poyser in PoE. Somehow landed conveniently at Poyser limming Ultra. I keep asking everyone why they think she's town and only one person answered. If you hold her so highly, maybe someone will properly explain that. I'm looking at kshaq and monti here especially. I just have nothing to clear her with. No heavy interactions with dead scums.
Waki - could be scum. Kshaq said that Poyser wouldn't claim because it'd doom Waki. But what could Poyser do instead? If he started pushing someone else, it'd be obvious that he doesn't want to hurt Waki. So I'd say Waki pairing is viable. It's weekend now so he has to give from the liver or get yeeted.
Lucho - OK it's time to talk about this guy. It's evident now that scum tried to push me in some way d1. First Poyser was beating me hard, then njay OMGUSed me. Lucho was also beating me with really unsubstantiated arguments. His game does not make sense as mafia, but it stops making sense as a townie. Absurdly lazy reads. He's a good townie meta wise, you want him on your side.
Alexis - he's cool.
Ekko - he's cool I think. Unless Poyser wanted to distance himself from him. But it felt like Poyser was setting up the stage for sussing Poyser even before Lion's flip which makes this less likely.
Antura - he's cool.
Holmes - not commenting on Poyser much and then Poyser landing in his PoE doesn't bode well.
Aureal - defending Poyser like this and antagonizing Ultra pushing him makes me think he'd not do it as scum. But Ultra was pretty sure about him going at him next after scum!Poyser so I'd listen to him. Maybe Ultra knows better about this guy doing counter intuitive things.
Melkor's not doing much. He could be town who has signed up to play with fellow Poles for the first time and the game tempo overwhelmed him. But we can't take that risk. There's not much to clear him by.
Lethal - yeah so he hammered Poyser. So we have to put temporary trust into him. Not sure if we should give him a lock town for this, because he was kinda pressured by Ultra to hammer while hesitating.
Monti - I want to trust him, but I'm hesitant now a bit. I think the way he bussed Poyser could be possible for his scum range. I'd say I'm generally afraid of his scum potential, especially that a lot of other people are becoming townier with game circumstances.
And I've also noticed how he had votes on Poyser counted well. It surprised me, because I had no idea how many is there. I'd imagine votes are counted meticulously on Discord.
I wonder who Monti sees as a plot twist if any.
If he's not in this squad, the remaining mafia looks quite simple, and it feels off to me, and I want to avoid naively saying "they're stuck in a cage".
Because who's remaining?
Holmes, Hayumi, Melkor, Aureal, Lucho, Waki
If you're town and you feel offended being put here, tell me who's most likely scum on this list.
***
Holmes has the biggest contrast between how he entered the game VS now. He was offensive as fuck at the beginning, now he's making posts like this one:
"Poyser
KShaq
Waki
Melkor
Fang and Ekko possiblility for scum reads
Lethal, Alexis, Czuek, and Ginger town
Oh, and your troglotiddy ass is town as well ig"
Not only this list felt very mainstream at a time, he's also not bashing with a hammer these guys. And the last sentence feels kinda off. I've used something similar as scum myself when trying to placate people who pushed me.
And to add he was quiet about Poyser vs Waki duel.
And he has been talking about Poyser but not TO Poyser.
Poyser appeared in his susses after d2 thread opened with simple statement "Yeah I can get behind Ekko and Poyser."
When the d1 was near EOD, he was sussing other people with soft defense of NJay:
"Very happy to go Lion or Waki still, happy to support on Monti or NJay though I still think he's just hyperventilating town more than scum"
Weird progression on Poyser!
***
I'd do Aureal first. And vig Holmes. Or vice versa. Compromise between my read and Ultra's read.
***
I checked who reacted first to Poyser's claim, Lethal and Ultra, so that does not help much anyone from PoE.
Aurelian was in the thread but all he posted Hmm emoji. Could be waiting for reactions.
To Bobek and Monti I cannot give points for this, because they were 3rd and 4th to react, could be bussing.
***
After reconsideration I think Lethal is just "spewed/TMId by thread" townie at this point. To strengthen that feeling, when I was reading Ekko, I saw that he made good point, with Poyser calling vote on Lethal weak.
***
Some offtopic thought: last game in MafiaCorner ended in a sweep, and I see now how fucked up it is for town if they don't lim a single scum to open up the mafia team. You're derived of so much info.
***
3:9
3:6 - missing vig
3:4 - lylo, cause even if vig kills scum, it's still 2:2
so the situation isn't as good as I thought, mafia has 3 mislims to win and PoE is broad. Hope PRs sit in my PoE. Or maybe not as bad as vig can shoot someone from it once.
Someone smarter at setups than me should tell us if vig should be shooting today. I can see that using roles is optional.