Early Day 3 Analysis - Part 2
Alexis's Posts Alexis votes Lethal. This is the first vote of the game and continues Alexis's tunnel since Day 1 (I'm inclined to think Alexis is right on the money here, though)
'Hime is not Town. We need to look into her.' - Alexis gives this but I don't recall their reasoning for thinking Hime is 3rd party. Can you elaborate on this?
'
Final PoE (legacy in case of death as well) Lethal
Aurelian
Lappland
hime
---------------------------- (Hero Killer is likely among the above. I believe them to be hime currently.)
Mlraka'
I don't understand this, are you saying I'm townie or in the PoE Alexis?
Alexis asks PepeBoi (weird choice given Pepe is one of the scummier players in the game) to vote Lethal. Vetoes an Aurelian lynch by saying we should vote Lethal today. A somewhat curious playstyle, for sure, but it doesn't really change my mind on Alexis being a very likely town, which makes the subsequent push on them later all the more strange. Dare I say, it gives me chills


Aurelian calls out Alexis for their reads not evolving at all.
A pattern I notice among many of my FoSes is that they are focusing on Alexis and using them as a scapegoat for whatever. I'd be wary of players who are just focused on a couple of players rather than trying to develop a broader world-view.
Other Posts Jay then says 'So do we clear pepe or do we think hayumi is a relentless busser?' - the idea of clearing PepeBoi seems absurd to me. What has PepeBoi even done this whole game? The notion is so ridiculous that I'd probably move Jay to a scumlean for this alone, except that I need to analyze their argument with LappLand first. I also saw Alexis clear PepeBoi, which I also don't get at all, but it would be unfair to have a double standard here, so I suppose Jay23 stays null for me
'Alexis feels off. The Arne kill and him flipping vig makes me think it might very well have been between Alexis, Goddess, and Lapp.
I guess potentially Lethal since he was also on Arne's radar.' - from Aurelian. Not sure how i feel about this post. It feels to me like Aurelian is setting up LHF to pick off in the next rounds. Either that or they are mafia and put one of their partners in here to try and look good for later.
Because let's face it GoddessBlade has contributed virtually NOTHING to the game and most of LappLand's posts feel like a dog chasing cars, not knowing what to do if they actually caught one
Posts That Don't Make Sense To Me At All 'Also what confuses me
Insomnia you have never mentioned the word autobot or decepticon despite Aurelian being a decepticon' - I don't understand LappLand's argument here at all.
Alexis reinforces that they're going for Lethal, before saying that Jay is clear based on 'spew', which I do not understand whatsoever. Not least because we don't even know for sure what LappLand's role is. If it was anyone else I'd probably be a bit sus on this, but because it's Alexis I'm gonna say it's NAI
'With the Hayumi flip, I think Lapp and Aurelian are very unlikely to be scum. I mean, do we really think a failed scum wagon D1 is going to have her mates jumping on so easily?' - from GoddessBlade. I don't necessarily agree with this, I still have LappLand and Aurelian as scum leans, but I like the question and hope to see more of this from GoddessBlade
More Posts Alexis replies by saying 'One/both of them are undoubtedly scum. Lappland takes priority.' - on Aurelian/LappLand. I do agree that at least one of these slots are probably scum
'Yes, it's maj lynch = very hard to get votes on
Either that option ends up being the kill or a no kill so bussing seems best to me
@Lappland i genuinely forgot, but were you a powerwolf or a busser? And also why aren't you all over my ass given you said hayumi and me were so paired' - Jay23 reinforces that, minor mindmeld going on here so gonna town lean this post just for that
Aurelian insists on flipping Alexis, while Alexis says that Stick is town. Both notions seem very odd to me at this point. I haven't seen any posts from Stick that would be near impossible to come from a wolf, but they also haven't had many posts that I consider scummy (except from the start of Day 1), which is why they're still null in my reads.
'Aurelian is scum. They're trying to lynch anyone who goes against the status quo. If we have anyone with Watching abilities, watch me tonight.' - Alexis in response to Aurelian's vote on them. It somewhat resembles my own response to Aurelian, who has a pattern of sussing or voting people for the weirdest reasons
Specifically the reason 'It should also give us insight into Hime's slot since Fuji was so deadset on protecting him/claiming he's town.' - I don't feel like this reasoning ever comes from a town
Alexis then pings PepeBoi and Stick to jump on the Lethal wagon.
Saving Lethal's post for a separate analysis