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OBD Convo #26: Forth Eorlingas!

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NostalgiaFan

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Astaro said:
Their talking about Bakhmut which is still up there even with Soledar taken over by the Russians, mostly thanks to the Wagner PMC that Putin hired that’s only been carrying the weight of the Russian military.

And to be fair, it’s only because Russia has basically poured all their manpower and weapons into this place. Countless cannon fodder made from civilian and prisoner conscripts thrown in to the meat grinder (or else face execution by their own soldiers) to take the most hits while the more experienced members of Wagner follow once things settle down and purposefully launching missiles at the city’s infrastructure and unarmed civilians for weeks to force a humanitarian crisis.

Russia taking Soledar is their first victory in months and a Pyrrhic victory at that, between the huge unsustainable losses made to take this one town and the fact that they’ve so throughly bombarded it that that there’s nothing but rubble to claim.

No denying that there’s corruption and negligence within Ukraine’s own military too.
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And see, despite all you say, Ukraine losing ground at all with all the money and resources we give them is not a good sign no matter how you look at it. You say Russia is throwing everything they have at them as if Ukraine is not doing the same when Zelensky has outright forced conscription of all males teenage and up to fight and his removal of any media critical of him or even coming down on any religious group of people for "being too Russian" is not the sign of a stable and effective government, it's more the sign of a desperate and weakening nation that is having trouble just holding on to a fight. I also would ask where you are even getting the sources that say Russia's loses are "unsustainable" considering once again most sources saying as such are less than bias on the conflict in favor of another.
 
Masterblack06

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Nevermind

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NostalgiaFan said:
And see, despite all you say, Ukraine losing ground at all with all the money and resources we give them is not a good sign no matter how you look at it. You say Russia is throwing everything they have at them as if Ukraine is not doing the same when Zelensky has outright forced conscription of all males teenage and up to fight and his removal of any media critical of him or even coming down on any religious group of people for "being too Russian" is not the sign of a stable and effective government, it's more the sign of a desperate and weakening nation that is having trouble just holding on to a fight. I also would ask where you are even getting the sources that say Russia's loses are "unsustainable" considering once again most sources saying as such are less than bias on the conflict in favor of another.
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Russia is just doing what it always does which is mass human wave attacks for lopsided casualties. Ukraine just kicked their asses for months around Kherson and Kharkhov so naturally they need to regroup and retool a bit. Russia might gain Bakhmut at a very high cost but it's clear that this war is a strategic failure for Putin that exposed him for the wannabe he is. Russia's military can't even handle ~20 HIMARS units. They're a total joke. Zelensky's government isn't going to fall anytime soon.

Ukraine probably won't be able to regain all the territory it lost but Putin will need to bleed himself white to sustain what he currently has. This war will end in a negotiated settlement like most wars do, which is what I've been saying since about the summer.

It's looking a lot like the Winter War. Russia "won" there too.
 
Astaro

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NostalgiaFan said:
And see, despite all you say, Ukraine losing ground at all with all the money and resources we give them is not a good sign no matter how you look at it. You say Russia is throwing everything they have at them as if Ukraine is not doing the same when Zelensky has outright forced conscription of all males teenage and up to fight and his removal of any media critical of him or even coming down on any religious group of people for "being too Russian" is not the sign of a stable and effective government, it's more the sign of a desperate and weakening nation that is having trouble just holding on to a fight. I also would ask where you are even getting the sources that say Russia's loses are "unsustainable" considering once again most sources saying as such are less than bias on the conflict in favor of another.
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Going by casualties, Russians have suffered several times the number of soldier deaths of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians combined. That is not sustainable in the long run.


Nevermind said:
Russia is just doing what it always does which is mass human wave attacks for lopsided casualties. Ukraine just kicked their asses for months around Kherson and Kharkhov so naturally they need to regroup and retool a bit. Russia might gain Bakhmut at a very high cost but it's clear that this war is a strategic failure for Putin that exposed him for the wannabe he is. Russia's military can't even handle ~20 HIMARS units. They're a total joke. Zelensky's government isn't going to fall anytime soon.

Ukraine probably won't be able to regain all the territory it lost but Putin will need to bleed himself white to sustain what he currently has. This war will end in a negotiated settlement like most wars do, which is what I've been saying since about the summer.

It's looking a lot like the Winter War. Russia "won" there too.
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Nice to see someone else picking up on how this a repeat of the Soviets war with Finland. They “won” that one from attrition, getting absolutely destroyed but winning anyway from having just that many soldiers to throw into the meat grinder to wear the enemy out.

Personally, I think this time it will blow up in Putin’s face trying the same tactics. He doesn’t have the power or command over the people as he would if it were still the Soviet Union and plenty of Russians already aren’t going to accept being sent to die in his pointless war and have left the county in masses
 
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Claudio Swiss

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how bout y'all shut the fuck up on this cause let be real theres no real answer on whos actually winning given this is a war and neither side gonna be honest on who actually winning
 
NostalgiaFan

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@Masterblack06 I'll just make my last statement here and end it like this.

@Astaro @Nevermind
Make whatever comment you want, but the very nature of this being a concurrent war means whatever "sources" you use (of which none you showed besides the inital pro Ukraine tweet) are unreliable at worst or not fully informed at best. No one is denying that Putin has fucked up big time, but implying Ukraine will stand up fine after this conflict whether it wins or loses is just as unlikely. The sheer scale of corruption alone has led to said resources not being used to their full extant and backdoor deals with certain figures have gone into less than savory institutions and organizations. Whatever comes after, neither power will be holding well after this.
 
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