Game Ranked Dune Mafia - town victory

[Ultra]

Also you’re probably right that ratchet is the one that realistically should have missed out there, but I understand him wanting to reward the effort and as someone that puts a lot of effort into helping teammates at the expense of myself also and is often overlooked for it, I’m not really wanting to argue against it lmao

I think the bar for town is set really high though lmao

Quick maths:

If a hider dies in this set up via their own role, it's 11 v 2 v 5, in sheer collective vote power that's 11 townies to 7 non townies, from the get go

Definitely scum sided and we still won, mostly from solving too.

 

[Lord Melkor]

I think the bar for town is set really high though lmao

Quick maths:

If a hider dies in this set up via their own role, it's 11 v 2 v 5, in sheer collective vote power that's 11 townies to 7 non townies, from the get go

Definitely scum sided and we still won, mostly from solving too.

Hider should catch a scum if he dies though?

 

[Poyser]

I think the bar for town is set really high though lmao

Quick maths:

If a hider dies in this set up via their own role, it's 11 v 2 v 5, in sheer collective vote power that's 11 townies to 7 non townies, from the get go

Definitely scum sided and we still won, mostly from solving too.

Do agree yeah, was definitely slightly scum sided. Also compounded by half of town just completely shitting the bed with their roles and claims kek

Tho its hard not to laugh when you realise that Sig randomly jailing watson actually worked out for town and stopped CP dying You can't write that shit

 

[Ultra]

Hider should catch a scum if he dies though?

Yes but my point is that a 2 mislynch allowance is pretty tough odds to overcome. Most cases it takes 3-4 for mafia to win, and they're still statistically favored. Your average game I feel like town loses this...maybe 80% of the time (if you feel I'm being too harsh, my baseline for scum win is above 50%).

This was a scrapper. I acknowledge mafia's efforts but they had it tough because of town playing well!

 

[Ratchet]

Thanks Melkor. I do think you are definitely not giving town enough credit for winning this one, though. Odds were pretty stacked against us. 6 anti town, a double voter in mafia, hider kills themselves...2 mislynches into lylo is tough stuff and we still got the job done!

It's not two lynches into LyLo, because the Indie has no reason to side with Mafia given that they need them dead too. In the worst case, Town mislynch twice, the hider dies, Mafia successfully kill twice and the indie kills once, that leaves 12 going into Day 3. 5 Mafia votes, 1 Serial, 1 Neutral, 6 town. And the indie serial has to town side here. You're conflating losing majority outright with LyLo, and I've already explained this to you earlier in the dead chat, so I have no idea why you're back repeating the same argument.

Town will always get 3 mislynches to work with, but even if they mislynch in the above scenario, which would rely on the Hider not using their role even close to correctly, they still have 4 players worst case going into Day 4, vs 4 mafia (5 votes) and 2 indies. At this point, it depends on the neutral indie. If they were recruited by the serial they townside. If they're purely neutral, they can stall, but have no real incentive to do so as it means the serial can just recruit them. They could lynch the serial with the Mafia, but it needs the Vig, jailer and the duelist all dead to bank on that. So in most scenarios (not all), town should still have 4 mislynches.

What you are doing is presenting a scenario that cannot actually happen but theoretically does from a numbers perspective, and then conflating LyLo with voting majority.

 

[Ratchet]

Yes but my point is that a 2 mislynch allowance is pretty tough odds to overcome. Most cases it takes 3-4 for mafia to win, and they're still statistically favored. Your average game I feel like town loses this...maybe 80% of the time (if you feel I'm being too harsh, my baseline for scum win is above 50%).

This was a scrapper. I acknowledge mafia's efforts but they had it tough because of town playing well!

This is more disingenuous arguments from you - you're arguing that town only had 2 mislynches allowed, but that's not true. In your (incorrect) scenario, the town need to mislynch twice to get to LyLo. LyLo is still a lynch that the town can achieve by themselves. So that's three, not two - there isn't a scenario possible where the Vig doesn't also misfire, and I would argue that a vig misfire should be punitive. And it is disingenuous, because I've already explained this to you earlier, and you're back making the same faulty arguments.

 

[Ultra]

It's not two lynches into LyLo, because the Indie has no reason to side with Mafia given that they need them dead too. In the worst case, Town mislynch twice, the hider dies, Mafia successfully kill twice and the indie kills once, that leaves 12 going into Day 3. 5 Mafia votes, 1 Serial, 1 Neutral, 6 town. And the indie serial has to town side here. You're conflating losing majority outright with LyLo, and I've already explained this to you earlier in the dead chat, so I have no idea why you're back repeating the same argument.

Town will always get 3 mislynches to work with, but even if they mislynch in the above scenario, which would rely on the Hider not using their role even close to correctly, they still have 4 players worst case going into Day 4, vs 4 mafia (5 votes) and 2 indies. At this point, it depends on the neutral indie. If they were recruited by the serial they townside. If they're purely neutral, they can stall, but have no real incentive to do so as it means the serial can just recruit them. They could lynch the serial with the Mafia, but it needs the Vig, jailer and the duelist all dead to bank on that. So in most scenarios (not all), town should still have 4 mislynches.

What you are doing is presenting a scenario that cannot actually happen but theoretically does from a numbers perspective, and then conflating LyLo with voting majority.

I'm not conflating lylo with voting majority, but you know town doesn't win the majority of the time if they don't have it. Arsonist is unlikely to resolve mafia or tilt the balance of the game as well until they can win, assuming logical play

 

[Ratchet]

I'm not denying that there is an element of swingyness to the game, I think the role T-Pein had is very swingy (and the recruitment possibility for the Mafia shouldn't exist IMO). I also think the Hider was probably a bit harmful for the town and I would have changed it to a Vanilla Cop for the town. These are fair complaints that I agree with. Would say, with the above, it's probably leaning scum favoured on that basis too. But to completely misrepresent the numbers by adding up town vs non-town votes, and to argue as if all non-town votes are aligned with each other, is very dishonest.

 

[Ratchet]

I'm not conflating lylo with voting majority, but you know town doesn't win the majority of the time if they don't have it. Arsonist is unlikely to resolve mafia or tilt the balance of the game as well until they can win, assuming logical play

You're arguing purely from a numbers perspective to establish your premise, and then pivoting to a "expected play" basis when it no longer supports your narrative. If you want to factor in the hider dying, then you also need to factor in the liklihood of non-town being lynched afterwards. Which is what should happen. And if the town has mislynched twice, then maybe the hider shouldn't be hiding too. Same reason why the vig probably shouldn't shoot there unless they have clear scum (and that the busdriver is dead).

You can't do both, that's a fallacious argument. If you want to argue that the numbers are inherently scum sided, then you need to stick to the numbers, which mathematically do not support the argument that you're trying to make. If you want to argue expected play, then you need to weight expected play on both sides - not just what you want to say is expected play to push through your agenda. Your premise is not correct, the town do not reach LyLo after two mislynches.

 

[Ultra]

This is more disingenuous arguments from you - you're arguing that town only had 2 mislynches allowed, but that's not true. In your (incorrect) scenario, the town need to mislynch twice to get to LyLo. LyLo is still a lynch that the town can achieve by themselves. So that's three, not two - there isn't a scenario possible where the Vig doesn't also misfire, and I would argue that a vig misfire should be punitive. And it is disingenuous, because I've already explained this to you earlier, and you're back making the same faulty arguments.

This is semantics because I said a 2 mislynch allowance. If it takes 3 to lose, then the third mislynch isn't allowed by definition.

Not being disingenuous really, just think that it kind of goes without saying that it's harder for town to win here.

 

[EkkoLoJinx]

guys remind me again, which scum did poyser catch first?

 

[Ratchet]

This is semantics because I said a 2 mislynch allowance. If it takes 3 to lose, then the third mislynch isn't allowed by definition.

Not being disingenuous really, just think that it kind of goes without saying that it's harder for town to win here.

You're wrong - a two mislynch allowance implies that the town are allowed two mislynches before they lose. It's not a two mislynch allowance if town are actually allowed three. And before you say "I was arguing allowance until we reach LyLo" -

Yes but my point is that a 2 mislynch allowance is pretty tough odds to overcome. Most cases it takes 3-4 for mafia to win, and they're still statistically favored.

You very clearly conflate needing two mislynches here with Mafia usually needing 3-4 to win. As your scenario points out, Mafia do need 3 to win, so you were actually trying to pass off your scenario as evidence of Mafia needing two, not three.

 

[EkkoLoJinx]

im looking at day 2 and searching by watson, posyer was one of the last players mentioning her

he didnt catch ratchet and RDK either

unironically gad sused her first, then other players talked about her, luka also added her to wolf list, posyer came way after

trying to take credit for other people's work isn't kawaii

 

[Ultra]

You're arguing purely from a numbers perspective to establish your premise, and then pivoting to a "expected play" basis when it no longer supports your narrative. If you want to factor in the hider dying, then you also need to factor in the liklihood of non-town being lynched afterwards. Which is what should happen. And if the town has mislynched twice, then maybe the hider shouldn't be hiding too. Same reason why the vig probably shouldn't shoot there unless they have clear scum (and that the busdriver is dead).

You can't do both, that's a fallacious argument. If you want to argue that the numbers are inherently scum sided, then you need to stick to the numbers, which mathematically do not support the argument that you're trying to make. If you want to argue expected play, then you need to weight expected play on both sides - not just what you want to say is expected play to push through your agenda. Your premise is not correct, the town do not reach LyLo after two mislynches.

It's punitive compared to the average set up, I'm not ignoring the fact that hider gets a result. But with the numbers already quite lean, compared to most set ups you could probably expect a cop or something. Securing a scum lynch doesn't also change the amount of mislynches required to victory, unless they mislynch you or something. The hider choosing not to hide changes the math, possibly, but in both scenarios (and in terms of how the game actually played out), I think town played uphill.

 

[Poyser]

im looking at day 2 and searching by watson, posyer was one of the last players mentioning her

he didnt catch ratchet and RDK either

unironically gad sused her first, then other players talked about her, luka also added her to wolf list, posyer came way after

trying to take credit for other people's work isn't kawaii

And yet you complain when everybody says everything you say is disingenuous. Embarrassing

 

[Poyser]

Still, congrats on your sparkles lynch fella. Good game

 

[Ultra]

I'm not denying that there is an element of swingyness to the game, I think the role T-Pein had is very swingy (and the recruitment possibility for the Mafia shouldn't exist IMO). I also think the Hider was probably a bit harmful for the town and I would have changed it to a Vanilla Cop for the town. These are fair complaints that I agree with. Would say, with the above, it's probably leaning scum favoured on that basis too. But to completely misrepresent the numbers by adding up town vs non-town votes, and to argue as if all non-town votes are aligned with each other, is very dishonest.

...Come again? This was a thing?

 

[Ratchet]

It's punitive compared to the average set up, I'm not ignoring the fact that hider gets a result. But with the numbers already quite lean, compared to most set ups you could probably expect a cop or something. Securing a scum lynch doesn't also change the amount of mislynches required to victory, unless they mislynch you or something. The hider choosing not to hide changes the math, possibly, but in both scenarios (and in terms of how the game actually played out), I think town played uphill.

See:

I'm not denying that there is an element of swingyness to the game, I think the role T-Pein had is very swingy (and the recruitment possibility for the Mafia shouldn't exist IMO). I also think the Hider was probably a bit harmful for the town and I would have changed it to a Vanilla Cop for the town. These are fair complaints that I agree with. Would say, with the above, it's probably leaning scum favoured on that basis too. But to completely misrepresent the numbers by adding up town vs non-town votes, and to argue as if all non-town votes are aligned with each other, is very dishonest.

Bolded for emphasis.

If your complaint was with the Hider over a safer investigation role, or rather, a role that doesn't need to die to return a guilty result, I would be in agreement with you. But your argument is to try and establish that the numbers were somehow skewed against your town, to a greater degree than they actually were.

Let's just use how the game acrually went to demonstrate this. If Town mislynched Day 7, that would be their third mislynch. Alongside a Vig misfire, losing in that scenario is probably fair. Now, you may have noticed an issue here - statistically, you would expect an Indie to kill after 2 cycles. The extra number takes it from F4 to F3, which doesn't change the number of lynches the town has. And also, there was cross fire, because the Mafia killed the Indie. So in assuming a reasonable case, the town have a minimum of 4 errors - 3 mislynches and a Vig kill.

It's definitely on the skinny end of being fair. The numbers are very tight. But trying to peddle that they have this "two mislynch allowance" etc is just bunk, it's not true or even relevant to the outcome.

 

[Ratchet]

...Come again? This was a thing?

Yes, if both Flower and the Town Jailer died, and my role died, Watson's role unlocked the ability to recruit T-Pein's role, as long as he hadn't already been recruited. I think that should not have been in the game and am glad it wasn't put into play.

 

[Poyser]

See:
Bolded for emphasis.

If your complaint was with the Hider over a safer investigation role, or rather, a role that doesn't need to die to return a guilty result, I would be in agreement with you. But your argument is to try and establish that the numbers were somehow skewed against your town, to a greater degree than they actually were.

Let's just use how the game acrually went to demonstrate this. If Town mislynched Day 7, that would be their third mislynch. Alongside a Vig misfire, losing in that scenario is probably fair. Now, you may have noticed an issue here - statistically, you would expect an Indie to kill after 2 cycles. The extra number takes it from F4 to F3, which doesn't change the number of lynches the town has. And also, there was cross fire, because the Mafia killed the Indie. So in assuming a reasonable case, the town have a minimum of 4 errors - 3 mislynches and a Vig kill.

It's definitely on the skinny end of being fair. The numbers are very tight. But trying to peddle that they have this "two mislynch allowance" etc is just bunk, it's not true or even relevant to the outcome.

But tbf, the Indy not killing was lucky for us as statistically they’re far more likely to hit town than mafia. You guys killing the Indy instead of another town was also very lucky for us. On another day that could have taken 2-3 more townies away from us lol