It's not really level 1 play to take those things into consideration. Tweet decided to not vote Gad earlier in the day phase - I recall a post by him saying "I'm categorically not voting Gad" when Gad was very much the prime consideration for the lynch at that time. Your question about "if Nibel was in danger of being lynched" is answered by Tweet and me repeatedly putting pressure on his slot and continuously advocating for Nibel > Gad. You know this to be true since I quoted you as well on this.
Also, there's no way I come in EoD and just say "Nope" to the top 2 wagons and Vote Nibel when my position on Gad from day 1 and day 2 was that he was town and also gave my rationale that Reloaded is town. I realize that this is WIFOM, but the logic stands.
By virtue of this statement, what do I gain from advocating for a wagon completely different from Gad or the top two wagons if Gad was the easier lynch? Might as well have said "This drunk guy is avoiding a claim and isn't complying, and then suddenly complies later, let's vote him" because that's literally what happened.
I did do the same thing. You'd have to consider things differently with my slot. I advocated for Nibel > Gad. I repeatedly told players that Gad was more likely town. Staying away from the top 2 wagons isn't staying away from the heat when you've previously stated your reasons to stay away from it. You would agree here I assume.