Wow, now you're trying to suss my word choices? Look at those straws being grasped! I say that as a general flavor in word town but what I mean is that somehow as scum, I evaded pressure well enough and was able to get a counter wagon going that looks like will go through. That's a decent effort by scum me then, yeah?
So I'm capable of driving a mislynch to save myself but get panicked under two votes of pressure. Fuck yeah, two different skill sets for sure. Good reasoning.
You realize how much this reeks, yeah? You yourself said Poyser is probably harmful indie. Who the fuck cares then if he actually moved his vote back to Fang? I don't care where his vote landed, my entire point of calling out Poyser was that he was BAD to town and I didn't believe his claim of being pro-town indie. How are you holding my actions against an indie you deem as harmful, against me? Why are you voting together with an indie you think is harmful?? How does that make sense?
Doddsy, again, why are you so fucking scared of me calling you scum or thinking you're scum? You've really gotten attached to that offhand comment I made. PANIC is creeping in...
This is such a terrible point. First, you’re painting Doddsy as sus for suspecting you, which is what you’re accusing me and falsely accusing CP of, in fact you’ve said it about everybody on your wagon lmao. You say it’s scummy when they do it, so why should we believe it’s not scummy when you do it?
Using him voting with somebody he believes is a “harmful indy” against him as if it’s scummy is disingenuous as fuck. Am I mafia? No, so what does the fact that I’m indy have to do with anything? Even if I am a harmful indy, I will still likely need mafia dead. Either way I’m clearly not aligned with mafia, so your point legit doesn’t make any sense at all, it’s just something you think sounds good to paint Doddsy as scummy. It’s so fucking transparent as your agenda has been all game. I’m properly gobsmacked that more people aren’t seeing how obviously full of shit you are
fair point, tho it then begs the question maybe the claim was just intended to make him survive an extra day
we dont rly know how useful the item he gives is. he hasnt claimed it. in another game of gram ive seen scum giving dummy items in the form of swords just to confirm them as that fake claim character
Notice that these two mentions aren't real reads or leans, they're just observations without implicating him. Instead of explaining why he suspects Fang, he just explains why he suspects Ekko by association. If youlook at the rest of his posts he does due diligence for why he suspects players like Ekko/Tweet/Me but there's 0 depth here. And that's suspicious because a partner of Fang is less likely to have genuine progression, and more likely to feel the obligation to read him as scum but treat it as an afterthought and place the focus on players they can develop as suspects.
Yeah, because I was looking at ways to connect Ekko to Aurelian due to the claim. I found it, and still do, very out of character for Ekko to be wrapped up in flavour and character names and the like. Aurelian (or Fang?) had claimed indy, and Ekko is normally lynch anything that's not town, but had wanted to give him a stay? I said it wasn't to protect a mate but I don't think his intentions were genuine. Indy could be the SK and help scum diminish numbers. Last game I played, Ekko was my team mate. He had shown a desire for the SK to stay alive to help us help reduce town numbers.
A similar pattern emerges here, where Fang gets maybe barely implicated, but Lethal does not miss the opportunity to tie it to another player. Tied with a bow by a complete nonsense conclusion about a Fang/Yoshi/Ultra scum team.
Now the reason why this is a major red flag is because *Fang has already claimed Ind and Lethal is well aware of this*. So I think this is a big TMI slip. There's no reason for Lethal to be thinking in the dimensions of partnerships with Fang not only claiming, but by his own admission, he believed him!:
See this isn't a nonsense conclusion at all. Yoshi has all this alleged tactical brilliance from one game, Fang was snapping away at anyone who went against him, and you were placating it.
Yeah, I was aware that he had claimed indy. Now I could be mistaken but this was around the time that Poyser and others were picking apart his claim and the mistakes that had been made in it. So I second guessed the indy claim and looked for connections. Town are not going lie about being indy, only scum.
Finally, votes are a good indication of where his skin-in-the-game lies, and his pattern at EoD was to Vote Ekko, then hop on the Tweet wagon when it appeared, and then only lynched Fang at the last possible second:
Not sure what this is trying to achieve? My progression was Ekko, who I have, had, and still do scum read, then I went to Fang, then I went part of the CFD on Tweet (because I was still semi-believing the indy claim, like 60/40) and it was made apparent that my Ekko preference wasn't going to happen, and then when Tweet claimed VT and started posting (even though he was a direction I wanted too), I went back to the non-town entity. It fell in a bad place on the wagon, and looks bad, but hey, that's the breaks. Plenty of wagon analysis could be done there for why people got on, got off, and got back on, no?
^ Cherry on top is that if you look at the vote counter, he's not even the one who hammered.
Others have brought up how his behavior is suspicious in general, lots of activity excuses “I’m catching up (despite coming across as well informed)”, etc. But I think this in particular is pretty damining
Cherry on top is that I wasn't the final vote? Well this is clutching at straws now isn't it.
I was catching up by going back through the posts. I had skimmed the game whilst being on the train, and remembered some of the details (but didn't know how to do threadmarks, even though I said how cool they were here in the beginning, hence me asking how to do them later).
I think it's pretty damning that you've seen Dragon's case on me (which I'm getting to), and thought you could capitalise on it by giving your own 'case' whereas the evidence you've presented is filled with inconsistencies and conclusions that have no merit. Almost as if you've put in a lot of effort to basically latch a vote on.
Okay but you say I haven't played with you before so I don't know if you get scared but you've also not played with me before and shouldn't just assume I panic.
Doddsy, I STARTED the Lethal wagon. I was first vote. I've been driving it (with some help). So I mean, if I'm scum here, I for sure just created a viable mislynch then.
That's not at all what happened. I was informed that Poyser did in fact vote for Fang. I said that's fine, because whether or not Poyser voted for Fang, was not the main point I'm arguing. I didn't need to progress my thoughts on Poyser's fake claim being wrong because my main point hadn't been debunked. Again, can't believe you have an issue with how I handled Poyser when we both agree he's harmful.
What the fuck Doddsy?? Like seriously that's how you view harmful indies?? 'He'll hunt if he wants to seem useful'. Are you listening to yourself? You just said you think he's a harmful indie. So how the fuck is he 'seeming to be useful to town' if you already know he's fucking against town? The fact that you're sucking the dick of someone you think is harmful indie is absolutely baffling.
Doddsy, I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt through your read back but you fucked it voting for me. You are saying complete bull shit right now that I don't think you believe. So yeah, you got to go into the wolf pile.
Where are there multiple strong players on my wagon? And who have I exactly called liars?
It's tough when you have no case on me and your commitment to your vote feels so uninspired. Like I just don't see if you're town here, you just come in and plop a vote on me, especially when you're voting with someone you say is a harmful indie.
Not sure how it's OMGUS when I literally called your slot out for one we needed to watch out for. Even gave Rugrat a couple of reasons why I didn't like your slot. Thought your read back was alright and it was starting to sway me a bit. But I'm in the best position to know who's wrong about their vote on me. I feel like your vote is halfheartedly and honestly it feel like it lacks conviction.
One thing that also stands out for me is that despite most of my voters being the WS crew, and knowing how they play, not one of them asked me for a claim. I thought they like to vote and pressure to get a claim and then make a decision from there? Guess they got so used to handing out claims unprompted and unsolicited that they forget to ask for mine.
This is the first time Ultra properly addresses anything related to Aurelian. I think it's notable then that his dismisses the argument RDK initially makes as weak, but makes no attempt to actually address this with RDK. Instead he talks around the issue, and frankly I think the point of him being the Admin of the site is pretty silly. I also think the "he has offered nothing" argument is a pretty soft blow, because the issue wasn't his lack of content, but the perceived defensiveness around his play. He makes no mention of this.
This vote then comes after Aurelian has started receiving them. Before this, Ultra gauges how confident Poyser may be in this read - Ultra has done very little casing of Evans himself up to this point. I'm not even sure why a meta read would sway him to begin with.
Just noticed this - Ultra liked this post for some reason. Why? I have no idea. It doesn't seem to jive with his impression of the game at all.
This is in response to Poyser questioning Ultra about his Evans read. It's frankly nonsensical, Poyser has just told him he has a meta tell on Evans, one that he is not certain of, but one nonetheless, and Ultra is apparently confused that he needs to convince Poyser that Evans is scummy? What?
This is a pretty hedgy defence. Of course he could be Scum, he is not saying anything of note with that. He now agrees with the case in general (despite having not said anything on it directly) and then tries to say maybe it's just low-hanging fruit - at this point I should provide the context that Ultra is at least as familiar with Aurelian as Ekko, X and myself are.
This is in response to me, questioning Ultra's profile of Evans being an "unconfident Scum". For context, he has already been told by Poyser that his meta read is shared by others, and asked why he was dismissive of it, and he didn't have anything compelling to address that. Also of note - by this point Aurelian has a wagon established on him.
This is in response to Aurelian. I'm not really sure what this is. At first, I read it as piggy-backing the suspicon of Yoshi, by virtue of him referencing a previous game he played with Yoshi. I could see this being in refrence to Aurelian himself, and in that case it's a straight up defence (contrasting his play with a scum player from another game, and then concludes that he isn't approaching this from a scummy angle). In other words, neither interpretation I have here reflects well.
He continues to talk around the wagon.
At the risk of submitting to confirmation bias, this just reads coyly. He knows Fang. He knows Aurelian is known as Fang. Come on.
Just quoting this for added context around the posts he was making at the time the Aurelian wagon was forming.
In reaction to Poyser seeking a claim from Aurelian. Chainsaw defence. There are a couple more posts around this, but I don't need to quote them all here.
This however, deserves mention. This is a little in retrospect, so bear with me. But given how Aurelain played his claim, we can assume that Scum didn't have a very clear role for him to fake. Given this, this post from Ultra reads to me as attempting to discredit the value of receiving claims before it is even done. Ultra has no real prior experience with Gram as a host - he subbed out of Game of Thrones after Day 1. Even then, it's just one game. Why does he know better than others more familiar with Host!Gram?
I don't know what he had seen from Aurelian so far in this game to hold any reasonable expectation that he would be able to post his way out of a wagon. Given that Aurelian was already starting to come across as stalling, I can see a very clear angle here where Ultra removes the suspicion around said stalling while a fake claim is in the oven. Not quoted here, also - he was very confident Aurelain wouldn't claim at all.
He goes from telling me that risking exposing a Cop early in the day (he misrepresented how early it was) was just unsound play to telling me that yes I'm right but it doesn't matter anyway.
Added context.
In response to me suggesting that, should he fail to claim, we should just lynch him. I feel like at this point, Ultra has set his stall out, pretty transparently, to play cover for Aurelian in the hope that something else picks up. I mean here he is essentially advocating I direct my attention somewhere else just for the sake of doing so. As Poyser also noted, Ultra's position on seeking a claim has changed from "this is a bad idea" to "yes but he won't claim so let's look elsewhere". Also of note - Retrolize apparently agrees with Ultra at every single turn here.
Further context.
Of note, Ultra hasn't really explained why he things Aurelian might be town. He just thinks it apparently - despite noting earlier that the arguments against him are sound and worthy of pursuit. Also, the last part in hindsight comes across as trying to set up that my approach here is unsound, which is fairly fallacious given the lack of supporting evidence.
No points for self-awareness, especially after having made a fair deal of posts attempting to get the thread to look elsewhere.
The key part I want to note at this stage is that Ultra starts pushing Evans the moment Aurelian starts receiving pressure. If you take anything from this set of quotes so far, let it be that pattern of behaviour.
Here we have Ultra seem to lean into a scum read on Yoshi. This is noteable, because if we assume that Yoshi was the designated duel target for Aurelian, which seems plausible, this could pretty easily be Ultra doing some legwork on that. I's harder to reconcile the other way, because Ultra seems to come around in the below posts to Aurelian potentially being scum, and tries to tie Aclo to him. Why, then, is Ultra even concerned about Yoshi?
I also don't recall Ultra doing much regarding Aclo today. From his perspective, the pieces are lining up here, no?
This post is fine, but I didn't want to not present it and be accused of misrepresenting the context.
-Break-
I want to take a quick aside to address this to Fang specifically - I have nothing personal against you. I don't know as a person. My association with you starts and ends in Mafia. You can accuse me of bias or whatever, you're entitled to that opinion, but I don't use anything in these games to make determinations on someone as a person. I have had more than my fair share of spats within Mafia, as you could probably tell. For me, it stays within the game. You don't have to like me of course, plenty of people don't, hell I know I'm not all that likeable, but I'm not very comfortable with the notion that you feel I have some personal beef against you. I really just don't.
Having infamous buddies sounds fun.
-/Break-
So by now, Ultra who was town reading Aurelian, voted him for not claiming (fair, though Ultra earlier didn't seem to care about a claim) then, once the claim came, unvoted him (also fair) - the reasoning though appeared to imply that his vote would normally stick, but he was concerned about an early hammer. There has been no Indie claim yet, so why isn't Ultra unvoting because he thinks he's town?
Quoting this to say, I don't actually know why Ekko concludes this. It seems like a reach to me. See below for the claim in full to make up your own mind.
I don't hold the conclusion against Ultra, I thought he was Indie too - but I think this is a very forceful way of saying it. "Beyond doubt" - really?
@Arp Bladstrum This is the image I mentioned earlier, if it means anything.
As an aside throughout all this I don't really like Ekko's process leading to his conclusion on Aurelian being like Daenarys. Giving me food for thought.
Ultra begins to look elsewhere. He begins to move the eyes back to Evans, now with the claim maybe going over better.
Why does scum Aurelian make this post? He doesn't even end up following Ultra, but Ekko.
Key takeaway from this is, like earlier in the thread, Ultra's pushes end up coming at convenient times to sway the thread. When Aurelian was pressured, Ultra pushed Evans. When Aurelian was gone for a while, Ultra made a point to say that the lack of claim wasn't suspicious and to get the thread to look elsewhere. When Aurelian claimed Indie, Ultra softened the blow and wanted to get people thinking elsewhere again, though he totally wants to kill the Indie. It's a repeated pattern.
To help compass thinking, this posts tells me that Scum were hoping people would see the Indie claim and just move past it. Therefore, I have some suspicion of people who wants to really sell the idea that he must be Indie, or to give him a Night. Dalton comes to mind here, too.
I think this idea of Lethal having "outed" himself is posturing, and it's pretty convenient given Aurelian is again being swayed away from.
Of coure, Ultra jumps on the tweet wagon. This is after revoting Aurelian to make a point to Ekko. He does jump off earlier than most, something RDK noted, but I don't hold that in favour because scum would obviously know Aurelian is a dead man walking at this stage.
Not much more else to say here. In conclusion, I think positionally Ultra comes across poorly with Aurelian flipping Town, and I don't see anything in their interactions that couldn't be easily faked. There is a lot of softballing in here - I think after the claim didn't really get the pressure off the scum team knew they had to cut bait eventually, at the same time there was a clear pattern of wanting to delay Aurelian flipping until perhaps today. That would give him the duel, which might have helped his case.
I'll go through T-Pein, back to sleep for a bit I think.
This is a good case. Especially when earlier he tried to take some credit for Aurelian which you’ve just shown to be complete horseshit and actually the opposite lol
also interesting that he’s been dead against me this phase. Did he join my wagon on tweet at start of D2? I can’t remember. But if not then it’s interesting that he DID follow me on tweet yesterday. If he didn’t join today then it does look like it was a case of “anyone but Aurelian”
I don’t think Ekko will get lynched today tho. You should probably decide how you feel about BPD as that’s the only wagon other than yourself that is close to feasible. Obviously don’t vote if you think he’s town
Idk how anyone can look at lethal here and think anything he has done has been with a scum agenda. Unvoting BPD is absolutely bonkers as scum there. Not only does it weaken the only counter wagon, but it totally reinforces people to think “well, I guess it’s lethal or nothing”
I’m not gonna be in work and at a pc until much later. I’ll case BPD but it will probably be too late by then to have any effect in getting him lynched but I still request that people that haven’t yet voted Lethal wait for it as at the very least it will show that BPD is acting in bad faith and lethal is not the correct lynch today