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Well here's the other thing.
If this sequence happened we can probably assume that mafia and SK were both not interfered with
So why do we only have two kills? Cough Rugrat cough
There’s literally zero path to victory with my claim if I’m scum. I either die at night or get lynched, and that’s assuming I don’t get instantly lynched for claiming the tenth killing role
I genuinely can’t get my head around how you think it’s even remotely possible
I genuinely can’t get my head around how you think it’s even remotely possible
If Rugrat is town, it means that a kill failed from scum. That means either the Jailer blocked the killer, or protected the one being killed.
1 - Dofla is unlikely to be killed by mafia
2 - Likewise, Gad is unlikely to be killed.
3 - Mango has a failed result on Gad. Either Mango is blocked, or Gad is jailed, or Gad can negate tracks/watches on him, or Gad blocks Mango, fearing a track.
The issue here is that it would mean Serial Gad killed Dofla, and blocked Mango, or Scum redirected Nibel into Mango and Serial killed Mango, or scum redirected Nibel into Gad, causing the kill to fail. That's how Gad is Serial there. In fact, given the mechs, if Rugrat is town, pretty much one of Gad or Dofla must be serial due to the failed kill.
But bottom line - I want to get an answer on action order. Because I'm currently assuming that if Dofla was sole mafia he would just get fucked by Jailer and couldn't redirect OR kill. That would be helpful to know
Well yeah, Rugrat still makes the most sense as SK
MangoSenpai
King of Conquerors
But isn't there a chance that there is only 1 anti-town left, like Dofla said?
If that was the case, then that would mean there was no failed kill
From what I see your presumtions are based on there being an SK and 1 mafia left
I think I've explained it clearly enough- any Mafia at this stage would be 1 scum vs about 12 town, the chances are slim as hell and very very unlikely that there is anything they can do to win. Stalling their demise is their best bet, in the hope that town think their way out of it. I don't really get how you see otherwise - even if we say it's not you, what chance does any Mafia have in this position claim wise that can open up a clear path to victory?
This is the issue with your argument - you demand a level of evidence that isn't really required for the position that scum are in. The final scum does not need to have position themselves in a way where they can win from here, their only option is to extend the game and hope for the best. Claiming desperado offers incentive for town to give you that extension. Replace your name with anyone else, how are they winning from here? You can't come up with one because it doesn't exist, you can assume that the scum in question would battle against being in this position, which you did.
You can't just demand an exclusive level of proof that only applies to you Poyser!
There is always a chance, but it doesn't explain the kills from Night 2.
MangoSenpai
King of Conquerors
Could you remind me how this supports there being 1 mafia and SK left now?
Like this is the core issue with this sort of defence - you demand that I reason out what exactly your plan to winning is. If I asked you to assume that Ultra was Mafia, and he bussed his team all the way to this point, how does he win? At some point, even with all the cred he has built up, he gets caught because people think "why does he still live". If you can't reason out a path to victory for him, then that shouldn't be the standard required for suspicion to be considered valid.
Broadly, I don't think you could make an argument for any one player left in this game to winning from here. Not without relying on luck, heavily. So it makes no sense to require that as a standard, as scum, you obviously need to extend it where you can, and then you hope that the ones left can be manipulated into mislynching enough. Frankly, even that is remote, the goal for any scum in this position is probably to just survive and see how long they can last.
I can see how the desperado claim would fit that motivation. It gives town something juicy to bet on, while you try and get yourself to the back of the PoE. I don't think there exists a good claim you as scum could make, so demanding that I explain why you choose that instead as if any plan you have as scum must offer a clear way to win from here is just intellectually dishonest.
Broadly, I don't think you could make an argument for any one player left in this game to winning from here. Not without relying on luck, heavily. So it makes no sense to require that as a standard, as scum, you obviously need to extend it where you can, and then you hope that the ones left can be manipulated into mislynching enough. Frankly, even that is remote, the goal for any scum in this position is probably to just survive and see how long they can last.
I can see how the desperado claim would fit that motivation. It gives town something juicy to bet on, while you try and get yourself to the back of the PoE. I don't think there exists a good claim you as scum could make, so demanding that I explain why you choose that instead as if any plan you have as scum must offer a clear way to win from here is just intellectually dishonest.
3 kills night 2. 1 from hime, 0 from Fang, which means two kills unclaimed. Assuredly, that comes from two different sources, and given that they're unclaimed, they would have to be Serial and Mafia.
DoflaMihawk
Paramount
That doesn't mean there's any scum left right now though.
MangoSenpai
King of Conquerors
But what if Cal was the last mafia?
I mean, we can't know for sure, and well I'm not really going to make any arguments for or against. I'm just airing it out there
We don't have a serial flip, and Fang and hime died. So for there to be 0 Mafia left, Rugrat must be town. Then, that means the Serial killed Hime. Technically possible, but that's what Rugrat's flip is needed for.
Moving back to Poyser, I should point out that the way he is defending himself currently is remicient of scum.
Scum want to make themselves hard to catch. They do things to argue "why do I do this as scum" - the idea is to make it hard to figure out their thought process. As long as you buy enough plausible deniability, you can survive for a while. As town, I would expect Poyser to be looking for who the last scum could be - he would know it's not him, and at the very least he would want to be informing his desperado shot as well as he possibly could. Instead, he is not doing that, because that's a lot of effort for what is probably a token effort of resistance - instead he's demanding one argues on his terms. It's very easy for Poyser to say "desperado doesn't let me win the game", because he knows that it is hard to logically argue a way for him to win through claiming it. Of course, he knows it's hard to logically argue a win path from here full stop, but that's how scum argue - they lead the discussion by being the ones to set the requirements for the argument, and then when an argument doesn't meet them, they defend themselves by virtue of it.
It's important to remember that scum can win the logical arguments, especially when they're the ones demanding they reach a certain standard. He should only ever be cleared upon death, whether that be what ends the game or not.
Scum want to make themselves hard to catch. They do things to argue "why do I do this as scum" - the idea is to make it hard to figure out their thought process. As long as you buy enough plausible deniability, you can survive for a while. As town, I would expect Poyser to be looking for who the last scum could be - he would know it's not him, and at the very least he would want to be informing his desperado shot as well as he possibly could. Instead, he is not doing that, because that's a lot of effort for what is probably a token effort of resistance - instead he's demanding one argues on his terms. It's very easy for Poyser to say "desperado doesn't let me win the game", because he knows that it is hard to logically argue a way for him to win through claiming it. Of course, he knows it's hard to logically argue a win path from here full stop, but that's how scum argue - they lead the discussion by being the ones to set the requirements for the argument, and then when an argument doesn't meet them, they defend themselves by virtue of it.
It's important to remember that scum can win the logical arguments, especially when they're the ones demanding they reach a certain standard. He should only ever be cleared upon death, whether that be what ends the game or not.
I would assume that they won't be. In which case, they could have blocked mango, yes. Good catch.
Makes it very likely that the serial is just Rugrat.
MangoSenpai
King of Conquerors
Also, on that note, I don't know if it lends to your theory here, but I found it very strange that he name dropped killing flower for no particular reason.
It's like I mentioned, sometimes suspects blurts out information only the perpetrator would know - because nobody had said anything about that.
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