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Night 4
Wrote this up over the night. [REDACTED] was 3 paragraphs of psychoanalysis on Poyser, left it out because a) it's rude to dump something like that at someone and b) not actually needed to make my point. Conclusion was that the way he chose to defend himself I felt was more likely to come from him as town.
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I think I'm a little annoyed at myself. Part of me is thinking that the answer might just be Gad and that's the end of it. If so, I was this close to being perfect by Day 3, and then analysed my way out of it. My thinking broadly is, it makes more sense to hunt for the Serial, which we know exists, vs Mafia, which might exist.
I'd thus lean in favour of Gad being Serial, and that's probably where I'll lynch today. If the game doesn't end, then I think I'll come back to Poyser et al. I don't think Dofla as scum would kill hime, and if the jail was moved from him to Mango, then he wouldn't have been jailed, so there is no failed kill against him.
On the agenda currently:
@Chairman Nibel Who did you jail? I've motivated you again, so you should have another 2 shots tomorrow night.
@Grammaton Who did you give your thing to?
@Poyser Who did you shoot?
I abstained.
Magic confirmed that if I shot someone that was protected then I would still die, and I hadn't said anything in the thread about shooting outside of Gad or Dofla and I didn't want to give them my death for free so I just sacked it off. Realised it would prob get me lynched, but decided that was better as at least there's a wagon etc to look at
Looks like its probably immaterial tho with @Chairman Nibels usage
Magic confirmed that if I shot someone that was protected then I would still die, and I hadn't said anything in the thread about shooting outside of Gad or Dofla and I didn't want to give them my death for free so I just sacked it off. Realised it would prob get me lynched, but decided that was better as at least there's a wagon etc to look at
Looks like its probably immaterial tho with @Chairman Nibels usage
Given your position, I'm surprised that you didn't shoot elsewhere to get your flip. I mean, that would be better than being mislynched. I also told you that you would still die if your kill failed yesterday, and you said I was being an idiot and that's not how kills work. You really should only not die if your action is blocked at the source. That's because a block prevents the action from actually activating, a protect or hitting a jailed target still have the kill activating.
I do think it's possible that if there are 2 scum left, one abstained because otherwise they clear one of two viable mislynches (would be 50/50 actually). So I don't think it's automatically just Gad/Dofla. Could be tho.
Well we can lynch one of the people Nibel blocked and ill shoot the other
Should be over really
I dont agree with me just dying for no reason would be better than a mislynch btw. It doesnt really provide anything other than a free death that helps scum. If Im gonna die then I at least want the possibility of hitting scum for it lol. Plus like I said, better to also make scum work for it rather than just get it for no reason
Nibel does have two more jails, I think if we mislynch today he will need to try and block the PoE off again, if we lynch the Serial (or Mafia) then he can block one of the PoE and declare protection elsewhere, that would enable you to shoot into the other. PoE in this case would be the expanded PoE.
Day 5 Modkill
Magic
Resplendent
@Grammaton has been modkilled. His flip will be posted end of the phase. Please do not discuss this modkill.
A mislynch is worse mathematically. If you have 9 town and 2 scum, and you die as an extra, then there are 8 town vs 2 scum. If you get mislynched, there are 8 town, and then more town deaths the following night, which means that by the time the town can play with the knowledge that your slot is town, they're down to 7 or 6 left.
Generally, if you view the night as the phase scum get a kill, the day is the phase that the tiwn gets one. So it's just worse to use the day phase to flip your slot over the night phase.
Yes sure, but the thinking is the mislynch isn't guaranteed, hence make them work for it
DoflaMihawk
Paramount
I do agree there, but also don't think your kill really is a confirm at this stage. We can reasonably assume the serial has kill protection. It's not a guarantee but it's plausible enough to question any clear that revolves around them not dying. Given that the serial is either the only thing that's left, or 1 of 2 scum left, it's at best a 50/50 which isn't really much good. This is why I maintain it wasn't worth leaving one of Gad or Dofla open last night - if they're town you die and we think they're either town or serial. It doesn't really help.
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