Throughout the day I thought his posts were a bit better constructed. Mind I still think he's a good scum shout, as he hasn't done a whole lot of hunting beyond hyper focusing on haza which is not going anywhere
The fact that you aren't able to explain your reads right now while clearly still being able to post isnt helping. Personally even without receipts I don't need an extended timeframe to at least explain my general concept behind why I suspect someone. You come across as not having formulated it yet and are buying time to ad-hoc it. Just from where I'm sitting.
I need time to go back through their posts to find what particularly I liked and didn't like. I did read 1500 posts this morning so their is a degree of reformulating what I thought during the initial read, as it does slip from the mind the exact reasons
Mmm, I'm not super opposed but I don't really read him one way or the other. I'd prefer someone who is fair universally town read, but I honestly can't think of anyone who is. Maybe T-Pein? Does anyone have any sus reads on him?
One thing that also stands out for me is that despite most of my voters being the WS crew, and knowing how they play, not one of them asked me for a claim. I thought they like to vote and pressure to get a claim and then make a decision from there? Guess they got so used to handing out claims unprompted and unsolicited that they forget to ask for mine.
Mmm, I'm not super opposed but I don't really read him one way or the other. I'd prefer someone who is fair universally town read, but I honestly can't think of anyone who is. Maybe T-Pein? Does anyone have any sus reads on him?
One thing that also stands out for me is that despite most of my voters being the WS crew, and knowing how they play, not one of them asked me for a claim. I thought they like to vote and pressure to get a claim and then make a decision from there? Guess they got so used to handing out claims unprompted and unsolicited that they forget to ask for mine.
I think the "sorry I'm late" is NAI. It's already kind of tenuous but he is the *Admin* so using his obligation to contribute against him is weak. But he's also offered nothing so far, would you agree with that?
This is the first time Ultra properly addresses anything related to Aurelian. I think it's notable then that his dismisses the argument RDK initially makes as weak, but makes no attempt to actually address this with RDK. Instead he talks around the issue, and frankly I think the point of him being the Admin of the site is pretty silly. I also think the "he has offered nothing" argument is a pretty soft blow, because the issue wasn't his lack of content, but the perceived defensiveness around his play. He makes no mention of this.
This vote then comes after Aurelian has started receiving them. Before this, Ultra gauges how confident Poyser may be in this read - Ultra has done very little casing of Evans himself up to this point. I'm not even sure why a meta read would sway him to begin with.
Objectively, what has he contributed besides trying to mire what you considered a free town read? It's frankly more confusing that I have to convince you. Unassertive, "Look at this cute little contradiction" posts tend to fit the profile more of unconfident scum. He's not a dead ringer, but only for the same reason there isn't any compelling defense for him - there isn't very much there otherwise.
This is in response to Poyser questioning Ultra about his Evans read. It's frankly nonsensical, Poyser has just told him he has a meta tell on Evans, one that he is not certain of, but one nonetheless, and Ultra is apparently confused that he needs to convince Poyser that Evans is scummy? What?
This is a pretty hedgy defence. Of course he could be Scum, he is not saying anything of note with that. He now agrees with the case in general (despite having not said anything on it directly) and then tries to say maybe it's just low-hanging fruit - at this point I should provide the context that Ultra is at least as familiar with Aurelian as Ekko, X and myself are.
The consensus on his meta does not strike me as strong or universal. The best indicator is the reaction to my push rather than just surveying everyone, if it really is that off mark, I'll expect some strongly opinionated correction. Ball is still in the court.
This is in response to me, questioning Ultra's profile of Evans being an "unconfident Scum". For context, he has already been told by Poyser that his meta read is shared by others, and asked why he was dismissive of it, and he didn't have anything compelling to address that. Also of note - by this point Aurelian has a wagon established on him.
The stalwart aggression and obsession over inconsequential details contrast with the nervous, passive aggressive level of defense Ral provided for himself in the scum game I played with him. As for general behavior profile, does not come across at all as trying to advance his position or avoid suspicion, frankly.
This is in response to Aurelian. I'm not really sure what this is. At first, I read it as piggy-backing the suspicon of Yoshi, by virtue of him referencing a previous game he played with Yoshi. I could see this being in refrence to Aurelian himself, and in that case it's a straight up defence (contrasting his play with a scum player from another game, and then concludes that he isn't approaching this from a scummy angle). In other words, neither interpretation I have here reflects well.
If Fang is town, Yoshi's play seems a lot more positional in that he blatantly found a non reason to switch over as soon as Fang caught heat in *spite* of his characteristic cuddling with his buddy
In reaction to Poyser seeking a claim from Aurelian. Chainsaw defence. There are a couple more posts around this, but I don't need to quote them all here.
Let's talk about the veracity of claims for a second, considering our host is Gramma. Setting aside any prior considerations about how a person is playing, any outright contradictions they've said, etc:
What percentage of claims given in this game would be enough to sway a vote another way? I have no knowledge of this flavor, but I do but stock in the competence of the host. Between generics and the predispondence of fake claims, I think by default 80% of claims wouldn't be worthwhile information. Hot take.
This however, deserves mention. This is a little in retrospect, so bear with me. But given how Aurelain played his claim, we can assume that Scum didn't have a very clear role for him to fake. Given this, this post from Ultra reads to me as attempting to discredit the value of receiving claims before it is even done. Ultra has no real prior experience with Gram as a host - he subbed out of Game of Thrones after Day 1. Even then, it's just one game. Why does he know better than others more familiar with Host!Gram?
...And if he was cop getting a claim out of a wagon 10% into the day is an obvious waste. We still have plenty of time for consolidation, if someone can reasonably remove themselves from the pool of suspicion based on their posts that would be preferable. If the suspicion on him doesn't budge, sure.
I don't know what he had seen from Aurelian so far in this game to hold any reasonable expectation that he would be able to post his way out of a wagon. Given that Aurelian was already starting to come across as stalling, I can see a very clear angle here where Ultra removes the suspicion around said stalling while a fake claim is in the oven. Not quoted here, also - he was very confident Aurelain wouldn't claim at all.
He goes from telling me that risking exposing a Cop early in the day (he misrepresented how early it was) was just unsound play to telling me that yes I'm right but it doesn't matter anyway.
The point that arguing about whether you should/shouldn't ask has no relevancy. He's not going to, and the discussion should revolve around what to do in response to that.
In response to me suggesting that, should he fail to claim, we should just lynch him. I feel like at this point, Ultra has set his stall out, pretty transparently, to play cover for Aurelian in the hope that something else picks up. I mean here he is essentially advocating I direct my attention somewhere else just for the sake of doing so. As Poyser also noted, Ultra's position on seeking a claim has changed from "this is a bad idea" to "yes but he won't claim so let's look elsewhere". Also of note - Retrolize apparently agrees with Ultra at every single turn here.
I understand abiding by principle, but the consequence is also the discussion gets pretty stale when consequence has now been taken off the board for today. Doubly so if he's town.
Because of the possibility of coming to the same situation with a different player, or even a situation where a player claims badly, I don't see why someone with your priors would be content to sit on your laurels at this point and not - as Ratchet suggested - try to extract claims from multiple suspect players and advance the game. My position is different, since I don't place as much emphasis on claims or enforcing strict standards on difficult personalities (IE half the people who play this game).
I haven't made it a secret that I suspect he's town and this would all be a waste of time if so. I don't have strong expectations for leniency, but "da rulez" aren't in my play philosophy. Catching scum takes priority and enforcing standards is only fruitful to meet that goal. This sometimes requires looking the other way on stupid behavior, which is something you struggle to do and it routinely costs you.
Of note, Ultra hasn't really explained why he things Aurelian might be town. He just thinks it apparently - despite noting earlier that the arguments against him are sound and worthy of pursuit. Also, the last part in hindsight comes across as trying to set up that my approach here is unsound, which is fairly fallacious given the lack of supporting evidence.
No points for self-awareness, especially after having made a fair deal of posts attempting to get the thread to look elsewhere.
The key part I want to note at this stage is that Ultra starts pushing Evans the moment Aurelian starts receiving pressure. If you take anything from this set of quotes so far, let it be that pattern of behaviour.
Here we have Ultra seem to lean into a scum read on Yoshi. This is noteable, because if we assume that Yoshi was the designated duel target for Aurelian, which seems plausible, this could pretty easily be Ultra doing some legwork on that. I's harder to reconcile the other way, because Ultra seems to come around in the below posts to Aurelian potentially being scum, and tries to tie Aclo to him. Why, then, is Ultra even concerned about Yoshi?
I'm starting to suspect Aclo. Very touch and go, asks a lot of empty questions but doesn't go anywhere and doesn't possess solving energy. I don't like how he approaches Fang's lynch in particular: There's no gears turning here, he treats the lynch like a forgone conclusion. To me, it appears as if instead of enjoying the hunt, he looks over the notes and goes "yup, safe"
There's also these posts where he makes generalized moans about "Fang apologists" but only reluctantly fingers Ekko when questioned. This sort of non specific shade is a way to consensus build without actually risking beef with a player: I'm currently expecting Fang to flip town, gth, but he honesty comes across as preflipping a buddy here.
I mean here as in that exact instance, but it's not incompatible. The common denominator is that he was firm but disinterested. If he sees the trajectory of the lynch and goes "Yup bussing time", that's a plausible explanation as well.
If you're town, claiming is probably the only tool at your disposal for turning the result around and having a chance at nabbing one of the scum who has wagoned you. So, that's not a good justification. If you're going down soon anyway, might as well take the bastards with ya.
You've already indicated you have a bias against me, which you have shown in past games that goes to personal beef. You have played the spite route multiple times at me, and you singularly are one of the most aggravating people I've had the displeasure of playing with which includes some of your more infamous buddies. Can I parrot back your own sentiment?
I want to take a quick aside to address this to Fang specifically - I have nothing personal against you. I don't know as a person. My association with you starts and ends in Mafia. You can accuse me of bias or whatever, you're entitled to that opinion, but I don't use anything in these games to make determinations on someone as a person. I have had more than my fair share of spats within Mafia, as you could probably tell. For me, it stays within the game. You don't have to like me of course, plenty of people don't, hell I know I'm not all that likeable, but I'm not very comfortable with the notion that you feel I have some personal beef against you. I really just don't.
So by now, Ultra who was town reading Aurelian, voted him for not claiming (fair, though Ultra earlier didn't seem to care about a claim) then, once the claim came, unvoted him (also fair) - the reasoning though appeared to imply that his vote would normally stick, but he was concerned about an early hammer. There has been no Indie claim yet, so why isn't Ultra unvoting because he thinks he's town?
Quoting this to say, I don't actually know why Ekko concludes this. It seems like a reach to me. See below for the claim in full to make up your own mind.
I'm not gonna say what character I am but going by how it was defined, I can bodyguard a town player or remove role-protect from a scum one/indie from the way it was described. I can only use that ability 2x times but if the Demigods or most of them are gone and the town takes most if not all the Great Runes, then my role-protect ability can become permanent instead of limited.
It's beyond doubt that he is in fact indie, makes too much sense. Probably telling some half truths about how role works, but I'll await flavor lords to weigh in
@Arp Bladstrum This is the image I mentioned earlier, if it means anything.
As an aside throughout all this I don't really like Ekko's process leading to his conclusion on Aurelian being like Daenarys. Giving me food for thought.
But for real my last post, if Ultra believes Evans or Craig or whoever else is a good lynch I'll happily switch gears if that's what it takes for me not to get day 1'd. Hopefully he is one of the anti-town demigods or Golden Order dudes and town get a w out of it.
Anyway I'm perfectly fine with being watched if there is a player who has that kind of role but please don't speak up and role-claim it
Why does scum Aurelian make this post? He doesn't even end up following Ultra, but Ekko.
Key takeaway from this is, like earlier in the thread, Ultra's pushes end up coming at convenient times to sway the thread. When Aurelian was pressured, Ultra pushed Evans. When Aurelian was gone for a while, Ultra made a point to say that the lack of claim wasn't suspicious and to get the thread to look elsewhere. When Aurelian claimed Indie, Ultra softened the blow and wanted to get people thinking elsewhere again, though he totally wants to kill the Indie. It's a repeated pattern.
I have no reason to lie about my win-con at this point. Given the general love of people to murk indies in most games I've played and with my back against the wall, that would be entirely self-sacrificial for no purpose to get outed as an indie instead of lying and saying I'm vanilla town.
To help compass thinking, this posts tells me that Scum were hoping people would see the Indie claim and just move past it. Therefore, I have some suspicion of people who wants to really sell the idea that he must be Indie, or to give him a Night. Dalton comes to mind here, too.
Of coure, Ultra jumps on the tweet wagon. This is after revoting Aurelian to make a point to Ekko. He does jump off earlier than most, something RDK noted, but I don't hold that in favour because scum would obviously know Aurelian is a dead man walking at this stage.
Not much more else to say here. In conclusion, I think positionally Ultra comes across poorly with Aurelian flipping Town, and I don't see anything in their interactions that couldn't be easily faked. There is a lot of softballing in here - I think after the claim didn't really get the pressure off the scum team knew they had to cut bait eventually, at the same time there was a clear pattern of wanting to delay Aurelian flipping until perhaps today. That would give him the duel, which might have helped his case.
I'll go through T-Pein, back to sleep for a bit I think.
One thing that also stands out for me is that despite most of my voters being the WS crew, and knowing how they play, not one of them asked me for a claim. I thought they like to vote and pressure to get a claim and then make a decision from there? Guess they got so used to handing out claims unprompted and unsolicited that they forget to ask for mine.
I should note that my arguments on Ultra aren't really contructed to draw a defence. More interested in what others have to say on it rather than Ultra himself.
One thing that also stands out for me is that despite most of my voters being the WS crew, and knowing how they play, not one of them asked me for a claim. I thought they like to vote and pressure to get a claim and then make a decision from there? Guess they got so used to handing out claims unprompted and unsolicited that they forget to ask for mine.
No I will for sure. I almost bought Fang's claim. But I don't believe that Craig, who had no votes and only my case in him (that he didn't read), throws out that claim for whatever reason. Same with Lethal. Wasn't a ton of pressure and Lethal cracked and claimed. I know shit is tough because it's my perspective, but when my top two scum reads both claim relatively closely together, for very little reason and pressure, I'm going to be pinged by that.
I didn't crack, please. I noticed there were votes, and I was heading to bed (but stayed around long after the fact), so I claimed so as to help prevent the game having to wait for me to come back and claim later on. I've never had an issue claiming in any game, in fact I'd say it's NAI even. But if I am faking, I typically butcher the claims in amazing fashion - not sure you if you ever saw my fake in GameShow mafia
Subtle shading of Yoshi to try and take the focus off of him. Detecting a small bus here. Haza picking Aurelian apart from post 1 improves my town lean on him.
Not sure the motivation here? Open wolfing?
He's speccing. Uh oh.
When have you EVER been so insistent on flavour? Like, seriously?
Yeah this is all kind of yikes.
WIFOM
Why the suspicion of RDK? Trying to defend a team mate that's been caught off of something so trivial and isn't able to sway momentum?
Red flag. There's also the part where you were "catching up" but had knowledge he'd claimed indy, then spent posts waffling on about him claiming.
Defending the lynch traction. Town Ekko wants to lynch ANY non-town, so vouching for the indy here is just baffling. Now he's swinging away at Ratchet. Oh boy.
You refused to answer this last night. Purple town team? Huh?
50 posts to make a decision? Sounds like a LOT of waffling on to swing this positive towards you.
Yup, I vibe with this. Ugh that it's similar from pein too. It's eerily reminiscent of his approach to my lynch wagon in Xmas when he (Ekko) defended me as best as he could [ultimately went Johnny but the fact remains]
Yet you were hinting at Haza as the alternate? Your justification was flawed.
Are you going to question those who didn't push it?
Scum team has Tweet, Ekko and Yoshi on it. Haza & Ratchet solidifying as town leans (with a skew towards reads)
Also want to note the irony of how I initially called out Doddsy's slot as one we'd have to watch and after his read through he voted for me.
Also want to note that Poyser voted me after I called out his indie claim.
Also want to note that Craig voted for me after I sussed him D1 (I did drop a case on Craig but alas he did vote for me before I did, but I did write his case during N1!).
Also want to note that Lethal voted for me after I dropped a case in them.
Fuck. What does all of these votes have in common?
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