Game Elden Ring Mafia

[Lethal]

Alright, @Black Pegged Dragon , it's your turn:

Lethal has six fluff posts and two posts talking about his own scum meta. This post then is made and it stands out to me because the game had barely started and Evans certainly wasn't tunneling. I think Lethal had some slight nervousness about Evans talking about him.

Kind of interesting as well, out of Lethal's first ten posts, four of them are interacting with Poyser. It might seem like Lethal is looking for some safe footing into the game while interacting with someone they might feel safe with.

Evans had spent most of those posts engaging about me. It's a typical tactic from him. So yeah, tunnel. Evans will choose someone and go in on them. He likes to do it to me. We once had a 20+ page back and forth in a Norse game. I was interacting with Poyser because he was active in the thread. If you think I'm going to try and be 'safe' with Poyser as scum, then that's flawed because he has an excellent strike rate at reading me when scum. If he'd sniffed any bullshit, he'd be into me and I'd avoid him. WIFOM, sure, but there's plenty of data to support it.

After this point eight of his next fifteen posts are getting into an argument with Evans. Funny that he tells Evans at the start that his game has changed. During this exchange, it's very clear that Lethal is scum reading Evans.

You can click through Lethal and Evans argument

Yeah, I have changed. it's been over a year since I last played with Evans, so he needed to know that. We were arguing cos I felt he was tunneling. It's clear I was scum reading him? Strong choice of words there, and false. Lean, possibly, but not read.

Another interesting post I just want to put her as I'll be making reference to it later.

He was being a smart arse saying that I'd dipped so I gave one back in return. I think the frozen in wolf chat comment is funny, and used it.

Now at this point, it has to be noted, that Lethal is gone from the game for almost twenty four hours and returns 1300 posts later. People are 100 allowed to be away from the game for whatever reason, just has to be said that is a lot of time missed for Lethal in the game.

Again, I have random time frames to play in. I had been out, reception wasn't that good where I was. I could've just ignored it all, feigned catching up like OneLastUserName and BigMan, but hey, I want to contribute.

This is Lethal's entrance back into the game. While I applaud the effort, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Not sure why if you have limited time, the first thing you comment is on Fang vs Ratchet. Considering Fang's flip, it makes sense for Lethal to position himself in safe way in regards to the entire Fang situation. Not sure how Fang vs Ratchet turns into a comment about Ekko protecting a mate, though. Don't see the thought process.

Not sure where the CP town lean comes either. This is an especially tough read because I scum read CP and Lethal admits that they have no idea how to really read CP.

As I mentioned, I'd been skim reading on the train. I recalled some of the more notable things but didn't save them as I was on phone and the quotes don't transfer over. I also didn't know how to use the bookmarks yet either. The process re: Ekko was that he's normally blood thirsty for anything that is anti-town (of which an indy is). Xmas mafia he wanted to keep the suspected SK alive to assist with the night kills. (now we thought it was Pein, which could cloud that sentiment).

I've played with CP for ~4 years. I am almost always scum leaning him because he's a difficult player to break down for me. It's negative thinking to always excuse someone as a scum lean, well, except for Doddsy, cos he's permascum.

This is where I think Lethal tries to start some suss on Ekko for a place to put a vote later on (Lethal votes for Ekko in this phase). Don't love that Lethal is using a past game to go after Ekko either.

At this point in the game, Lethal engages with Evans once again and restarts the tunnel. Lethal was the one the reignited this. It's also funny because Lethal called Evans 'frozen in the wolf chat' because he was away from the game, but then when someone says Lethal dipped, he did not like that.

Yeah, I did, since he's grown up the scale of my suspects. Near identical pattern to how he approached Xmas mafia. We say that it's not loved that I'm using a past game to go after Ekko here, but you have no issue in using a past game to go after me over my reactions? Is this not hypocritical? I find it rather obtuse in fact. You're trying to paint a picture here but your brush is dry.

Frozen in wolf chat =/= dipping. Saying I dipped when I went afk is insulting and I took issue with it. I may not be the most active player, but I do my best to catchup and get involved when I am playing. The game had advanced 1300 posts between getting on PC. Of course I didn't like the comment.

Somehow Lethal's round two tunnel of Evans ends with an Ultra vote?

Yeah, because I said maybe I'm being blinded by bias with Evans and went along my suspicion tree cos Ekko wasn't getting bites. I'd made it pretty clear why I was interested in Ultra when doing this, no?

At this point, Lethal engages in an aggressive threesome with Evans and Ultra, some who will write legends on the dick holding that went on.

Interesting to note, posts 1668, 1673, and 1677 are all about Poyser.

Mine is bigger. And now the posts about Poyser:

He had no issues town reading you in Xmas mafia. Also didn't hesitate to put scum reads either

This was to facilitate discussion around Tweet. Town tweet has no issues reading people, or giving out scum reads. It was observed that he'd purposefully avoided Poyser in this instance of the game.

Can't post screenshots so I'm posting the text:

• Dec 21, 2022
• Add bookmark
• #960

Ye this is about what I would have expected you to say from the start, but since it took me begging you to react this way it gets you 0 points this time

Tweet directly interacting here with Poyser. He hasn't done so in this game.

Also this:

• Dec 23, 2022
• Add bookmark
• #2,775

I don't think Poyser is scum, as he pointed out his play around the flipped scum players makes no sense as their teammate

I can't even remember what he said tbh nor did I double check it but it made sense when I read it so here we are :cozy

These are receipts from the last game we played. Evidence to support the sentiment that non-scum tweet (he was survivor in this game) has no issue interacting with Poyser. Scum Tweet does.

Funny, you said they were all about Poyser, but no, they were us discussing mutually observed traits on Tweet. Dare I hint a lie to push an agenda?

I hate to say this, but I've seen this exact reaction from Lethal as caught scum fairly recently.

A lot more tunneling with Evans in this section. I would say a lot of emotional reactions from Lethal as well that might be put on a bit.

I'm an emotional player. Call me dumb, coward etc and I'll go off. I addressed this earlier and accept that maybe I go too far at times and I shouldn't.

This is an interesting post here. If you remember that post I quoted earlier saying it'd be important earlier? Well, Lethal was excited for threadmarks and that it would make the game easier. But here, Lethal acts like he's got no idea how to work threadmarks and shows frustration. I think this goes to show that this emotional act Lethal is putting on is fake.

Yeah, I saw they were an option but I genuinely didn't know how to use them, hence the question. My task of catching up would've been so much easier if I'd known. You thinking I'm faking not knowing how to do something is on you. I think you severely underestimate how clueless I am at certain things.

Post 1753 is pretty difficult. Lethal jumps to Yoshi as being suss (low-hanging fruit) and then also, somehow, at the end of everything, suggests a team of Yoshi, Fang, and Ultra.

And? Yoshi has all this alleged tactical brilliance from one game, Fang was snapping away at anyone who went against him, and Ultra was placating it. I've learned many moons ago to try and see connections of teams forming in the thread. You disagree, cool.

- Yoshi's entrance wasn't that decent in the sense that being ~190 posts into the game, he says he misses Ratchet on discord and then specs on private convos happening. Suggests Haza is tunneling Aurelian off of 2 posts? This from the guy who has played ~2 games in total? Oddly defensive of someone with very specific wording. Lots of fluff posting. Oh the new to mafia comes once Poyser huh's him at the tunnel comment. Interesting. Hadn't bothered looking at posts before Pein tagged him in. Idk, I just don't really think it's positive play to ignore a portion of posts because you hadn't arrived to the thread yet.

This was my case on Yoshi, if you can call it a case. He completely ignored a portion of play prior to his entry. He suggested tunneling off of 2 posts. Low-hanging fruit he may be, but he's not immune from suspicion.

Here are reads from Lethal. I'll say I am town reading all of Lethal's scum reads. I'll point out the Ratchet read is one I don't like because they didn't play a lot of games together and Lethal shouldn't just be able to give Ratchet a town read based off of experience on WS.

So are reads are a complete 180 of each other. Not sure how this is bad for me, we just have different thoughts and opinions. I have played ~5 games with Ratchet on WG and formed a good enough assumption about his town play, which I agree is the same happening here. Am I wrong? Absolutely possible but I'm confident enough in my ability to be comfy with that atm.

Barf

I mean, I'm looking for more evidence on Tweet being a fence sitter, and given Poyser and I had been in communication about it, of course I'm going to seek his opinion.

Why are CP, Dalton, Alco, & Haza scum for you?

Why are Ultra, Yoshi, Ekko, Retro & Tweet town for you?

Found this post intereting. Why call out CP for a deflective tactic? Deflecting is usually what scum does. Lethal is town reading CP. Weird for Lethal to call out a town read for a deflective tactic.

Fang was insulting Poyser about reading ability, CP was insulting you about reading ability. They were deflecting away from what was being presented with insults. You even liked this post, but now have found an issue with it? Interesting switch up. And yeah, CP as a town lean but with not much confidence at all, given my previously stated lack of trust in my ability to read him correctly.

Got to catch the last seat on the bus.

Bussing my being the hammer vote? Sorta like yours being the 10th vote?

<========================================================>

It's a cute case, as I said. You're building a narrative here based on a lot of assumptions and using my tendency to play overly emotional. You even admitted earlier that you were letting your emotions fly (I'd suggest deliberately trying to wind me up).

For beating your chest so much about this case, it's not even that strong imo as I've easily negated any points provided.

 

[Lethal]

Ultimately, Dragon, I'm gonna conclude you're town here because no sane scum player would go to the lengths that you have gone to to try and stain my name when I am a very easy mislynch target.

 

[Arp Bladstrum]

Ultra:

This is the first time Ultra properly addresses anything related to Aurelian. I think it's notable then that his dismisses the argument RDK initially makes as weak, but makes no attempt to actually address this with RDK. Instead he talks around the issue, and frankly I think the point of him being the Admin of the site is pretty silly. I also think the "he has offered nothing" argument is a pretty soft blow, because the issue wasn't his lack of content, but the perceived defensiveness around his play. He makes no mention of this.

This vote then comes after Aurelian has started receiving them. Before this, Ultra gauges how confident Poyser may be in this read - Ultra has done very little casing of Evans himself up to this point. I'm not even sure why a meta read would sway him to begin with.
Just noticed this - Ultra liked this post for some reason. Why? I have no idea. It doesn't seem to jive with his impression of the game at all.

This is in response to Poyser questioning Ultra about his Evans read. It's frankly nonsensical, Poyser has just told him he has a meta tell on Evans, one that he is not certain of, but one nonetheless, and Ultra is apparently confused that he needs to convince Poyser that Evans is scummy? What?
This is a pretty hedgy defence. Of course he could be Scum, he is not saying anything of note with that. He now agrees with the case in general (despite having not said anything on it directly) and then tries to say maybe it's just low-hanging fruit - at this point I should provide the context that Ultra is at least as familiar with Aurelian as Ekko, X and myself are.
This is in response to me, questioning Ultra's profile of Evans being an "unconfident Scum". For context, he has already been told by Poyser that his meta read is shared by others, and asked why he was dismissive of it, and he didn't have anything compelling to address that. Also of note - by this point Aurelian has a wagon established on him.
This is in response to Aurelian. I'm not really sure what this is. At first, I read it as piggy-backing the suspicon of Yoshi, by virtue of him referencing a previous game he played with Yoshi. I could see this being in refrence to Aurelian himself, and in that case it's a straight up defence (contrasting his play with a scum player from another game, and then concludes that he isn't approaching this from a scummy angle). In other words, neither interpretation I have here reflects well.
He continues to talk around the wagon.
At the risk of submitting to confirmation bias, this just reads coyly. He knows Fang. He knows Aurelian is known as Fang. Come on.
Just quoting this for added context around the posts he was making at the time the Aurelian wagon was forming.
In reaction to Poyser seeking a claim from Aurelian. Chainsaw defence. There are a couple more posts around this, but I don't need to quote them all here.
This however, deserves mention. This is a little in retrospect, so bear with me. But given how Aurelain played his claim, we can assume that Scum didn't have a very clear role for him to fake. Given this, this post from Ultra reads to me as attempting to discredit the value of receiving claims before it is even done. Ultra has no real prior experience with Gram as a host - he subbed out of Game of Thrones after Day 1. Even then, it's just one game. Why does he know better than others more familiar with Host!Gram?
I don't know what he had seen from Aurelian so far in this game to hold any reasonable expectation that he would be able to post his way out of a wagon. Given that Aurelian was already starting to come across as stalling, I can see a very clear angle here where Ultra removes the suspicion around said stalling while a fake claim is in the oven. Not quoted here, also - he was very confident Aurelain wouldn't claim at all.
He goes from telling me that risking exposing a Cop early in the day (he misrepresented how early it was) was just unsound play to telling me that yes I'm right but it doesn't matter anyway.
Added context.
In response to me suggesting that, should he fail to claim, we should just lynch him. I feel like at this point, Ultra has set his stall out, pretty transparently, to play cover for Aurelian in the hope that something else picks up. I mean here he is essentially advocating I direct my attention somewhere else just for the sake of doing so. As Poyser also noted, Ultra's position on seeking a claim has changed from "this is a bad idea" to "yes but he won't claim so let's look elsewhere". Also of note - Retrolize apparently agrees with Ultra at every single turn here.
Further context.
Of note, Ultra hasn't really explained why he things Aurelian might be town. He just thinks it apparently - despite noting earlier that the arguments against him are sound and worthy of pursuit. Also, the last part in hindsight comes across as trying to set up that my approach here is unsound, which is fairly fallacious given the lack of supporting evidence.
No points for self-awareness, especially after having made a fair deal of posts attempting to get the thread to look elsewhere.

The key part I want to note at this stage is that Ultra starts pushing Evans the moment Aurelian starts receiving pressure. If you take anything from this set of quotes so far, let it be that pattern of behaviour.



Here we have Ultra seem to lean into a scum read on Yoshi. This is noteable, because if we assume that Yoshi was the designated duel target for Aurelian, which seems plausible, this could pretty easily be Ultra doing some legwork on that. I's harder to reconcile the other way, because Ultra seems to come around in the below posts to Aurelian potentially being scum, and tries to tie Aclo to him. Why, then, is Ultra even concerned about Yoshi?



I also don't recall Ultra doing much regarding Aclo today. From his perspective, the pieces are lining up here, no?
This post is fine, but I didn't want to not present it and be accused of misrepresenting the context.
-Break-

Spoiler: OOG

I want to take a quick aside to address this to Fang specifically - I have nothing personal against you. I don't know as a person. My association with you starts and ends in Mafia. You can accuse me of bias or whatever, you're entitled to that opinion, but I don't use anything in these games to make determinations on someone as a person. I have had more than my fair share of spats within Mafia, as you could probably tell. For me, it stays within the game. You don't have to like me of course, plenty of people don't, hell I know I'm not all that likeable, but I'm not very comfortable with the notion that you feel I have some personal beef against you. I really just don't.​

​

Having infamous buddies sounds fun.​

-/Break-

So by now, Ultra who was town reading Aurelian, voted him for not claiming (fair, though Ultra earlier didn't seem to care about a claim) then, once the claim came, unvoted him (also fair) - the reasoning though appeared to imply that his vote would normally stick, but he was concerned about an early hammer. There has been no Indie claim yet, so why isn't Ultra unvoting because he thinks he's town?
Quoting this to say, I don't actually know why Ekko concludes this. It seems like a reach to me. See below for the claim in full to make up your own mind.

​

I don't hold the conclusion against Ultra, I thought he was Indie too - but I think this is a very forceful way of saying it. "Beyond doubt" - really?

@Arp Bladstrum This is the image I mentioned earlier, if it means anything.

As an aside throughout all this I don't really like Ekko's process leading to his conclusion on Aurelian being like Daenarys. Giving me food for thought.
Ultra begins to look elsewhere. He begins to move the eyes back to Evans, now with the claim maybe going over better.
Why does scum Aurelian make this post? He doesn't even end up following Ultra, but Ekko.

Key takeaway from this is, like earlier in the thread, Ultra's pushes end up coming at convenient times to sway the thread. When Aurelian was pressured, Ultra pushed Evans. When Aurelian was gone for a while, Ultra made a point to say that the lack of claim wasn't suspicious and to get the thread to look elsewhere. When Aurelian claimed Indie, Ultra softened the blow and wanted to get people thinking elsewhere again, though he totally wants to kill the Indie. It's a repeated pattern.
To help compass thinking, this posts tells me that Scum were hoping people would see the Indie claim and just move past it. Therefore, I have some suspicion of people who wants to really sell the idea that he must be Indie, or to give him a Night. Dalton comes to mind here, too.
I think this idea of Lethal having "outed" himself is posturing, and it's pretty convenient given Aurelian is again being swayed away from.

Of coure, Ultra jumps on the tweet wagon. This is after revoting Aurelian to make a point to Ekko. He does jump off earlier than most, something RDK noted, but I don't hold that in favour because scum would obviously know Aurelian is a dead man walking at this stage.

Not much more else to say here. In conclusion, I think positionally Ultra comes across poorly with Aurelian flipping Town, and I don't see anything in their interactions that couldn't be easily faked. There is a lot of softballing in here - I think after the claim didn't really get the pressure off the scum team knew they had to cut bait eventually, at the same time there was a clear pattern of wanting to delay Aurelian flipping until perhaps today. That would give him the duel, which might have helped his case.

I'll go through T-Pein, back to sleep for a bit I think.

Just awoken from my nightly repose, the image actually looks innocuous to me, likely a healing flask.

I myself have only seen Ultra in the WoW game and they feel very different but probably not all that useful as info given the power level of the role from that game.

Mighty Warriors let us once again send the minions of the Golden Order to their demise!

 

[Lethal]

I don’t think Ekko will get lynched today tho. You should probably decide how you feel about BPD as that’s the only wagon other than yourself that is close to feasible. Obviously don’t vote if you think he’s town

Town.

Ultra would be my preferred direction tbf

 

[Lethal]

Noted: Ekko & Big Man liking the case from Dragon

 

[Lethal]

WIFOM, but Rugrat starts pulling effort out when Odo gives a warning to those with low post counts to get busy.

 

[Arp Bladstrum]

The entire case on him is based around stuff he does as town in pretty much every game

Your reputation precedes you and I would welcome your strength in the coming days, but other than trust you (you did help with the removal of Aurelian so there's room there) but I can't really verify this.

Contender Lethal like BPD seem a lot more put together now that emotions have run their course and I will be attempting to reasses both.

 

[Lethal]

I'm in my underwear, thank you for asking.

[vote lynch Lethal]

I feel asleep.

[vote lynch Lethal]

0 contribution other than voting me and suggesting he fell asleep.

+1 to Dragon for picking apart that OLU had only one post. His (OLU) to that was the sleep comment.

 

[Arp Bladstrum]

0 contribution other than voting me and suggesting he fell asleep.

+1 to Dragon for picking apart that OLU had only one post. His (OLU) to that was the sleep comment.

That is not a good look for our Esteemed combatant. Two votes and a one line excuse that was never followed up. Thank you for bringing that to my attention.

My fence sitting on you and BPD aside there are a lot of good points being raised about Ultra as well I feel I could get behind that whilst I cleanse my mind of this malaise.

Our strength of arm and will is key in the coming days ahead.

 

[Lethal]

Vote: Ultra

Let's get it

 

[Evans]

Up to date.

Not really a fan of how this Lethal wagon seems to be getting pushed. It's like people just want to get it over and out of the way without any real conviction in the result. I feel like I'm at a crossroads as I have nothing to defend Lethal with but I don't have any conviction it's going to result in a scum flip.

I liked Doddsy's catchup. I can see the gears turning.

Lethal's defence and bigger posts today have me doubting myself on his wagon, but I'm not entirely caught up and I don't see any other options aside from Ekko who I'd want to lynch

 

[Evans]

Yawn
Look at the people on Lethal
Literally none of them.
Not an opinion.
Its a fact.
Learn

This is a post I very much disagree with.

Poyser, CP, Haza, Tweet and Doddsy wouldn't avoid lynching Lethal just because he's from WS with us. They'd do what's best in their interests for the game.

 

[Evans]

Almost like I caught a mafia isn’t it!

I mean, you certainly pushed Aurelian, but if you had your way we'd have lynched Tweet or potentially no-lynched. I don't think you can take full credit for his lynch over other people on the wagon like Haza.

 

[Arp Bladstrum]

Vote Ultra

Time to test ourselves once more companions, all deserve to prove themselves in our contest of might.

 

[Hans Tweetenberg]

Up to date.

Not really a fan of how this Lethal wagon seems to be getting pushed. It's like people just want to get it over and out of the way without any real conviction in the result. I feel like I'm at a crossroads as I have nothing to defend Lethal with but I don't have any conviction it's going to result in a scum flip.

I liked Doddsy's catchup. I can see the gears turning.

This is basically my take as well, I got no strong feelings on Lethal either way except I like the people pushing BPD over those pushing Lethal, but if it's Lethal or nothing I'll lend my axe as well

 

[Alco]

Just for the record, I will only be active again somewhere tomorrow. Not sure if Lethal is the right move tho, what’s the case on him exactly?

 

[Alco]

Is BPD a competing wagon? I’ve seen (drunken) fragments but cant remember.

 

[Lethal]

This is basically my take as well, I got no strong feelings on Lethal either way except I like the people pushing BPD over those pushing Lethal, but if it's Lethal or nothing I'll lend my axe as well

So you prefer the Dragon push but would vote my way if that's the alternative to no lynch?

Yeah you're a scum boi too aren't you

 

[Lethal]

Is BPD a competing wagon? I’ve seen (drunken) fragments but cant remember.

It is, but I'm not a fan of it. I think he's town and misguided in trying to get me out. His case is very flawed.

 

[Lethal]

Just for the record, I will only be active again somewhere tomorrow. Not sure if Lethal is the right move tho, what’s the case on him exactly?

I linked Fang/Ultra/Yoshi, shit talked, tried to put Ekko aligned with Fang, changed my votes.