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Game Ranked My Hero Academia Mafia Thread

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RDK said:
Rugrat
Nibel
RDK
Dr. Watson
Gadministraitor
Grammaton
Emil
MangoSenpai
Aurelian
Cubey
Poyser
Flower
hime
Bachi
Ratchet
Ultra
DoflaMihawk
CP

if cp is scum id say ekko less likely

think nibel could quite easily be scum the more im thinking about it

hes not the same as he was in the last game as town at all
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@Poyser Page 2 of his ISO
 
I am a bit conflicted, because RDK's position is not looking very good, especially with how he has even admitted to hard defending 2 flipped scums.

While this is flavor spec I find RDK's claim more believeable than Aurelian. Deku seems to be a great fake for All for One, as Ratchet pointed out.

Something just feels off to me rn.
 
Not going to discord screenshot here like a homo but I'm gonna paraphrase what RDK said to me very recently

"I don't know why they're still clearing me since I'm the only remaining scum and godfather didn't flip"
 
Ultra said:
Not going to discord screenshot here like a homo but I'm gonna paraphrase what RDK said to me very recently

"I don't know why they're still clearing me since I'm the only remaining scum and godfather didn't flip"
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Yeah but he wouldn’t be assuming there’s only one scum left here
 
Ultra said:
JFC

No he can't only target scum players but scum players are the only one who can manipulate results!

The rest of town is irrelevant. Your baseline shouldn't be "odds cop gets a correct innocent", but "odds cop gets a correct clear vs a monkey picking names out of a hat"
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So I’ll use your numbers against you, hopefully this will work

16 targets, 3 scum, 1sk that’s II, and then lets say scum can lawyer 1 player as well as having a godfather

At this point you only have a 6.25% chance getting a guilty. That does not mean you should assume any town result has probably been tampered with, as there’s a 75% chance your result is legitimate

The assuming your result is fake is the only thing I’m disproving here. I’m well aware in this scenario that the cop is mostly pointless
 
If he’s faking cop, there won’t be a godfather. If there’s no cop then cp was probably just the godfather variant
 
Grammaton said:
So I’ll use your numbers against you, hopefully this will work

16 targets, 3 scum, 1sk that’s II, and then lets say scum can lawyer 1 player as well as having a godfather

At this point you only have a 6.25% chance getting a guilty. That does not mean you should assume any town result has probably been tampered with, as there’s a 75% chance your result is legitimate

The assuming your result is fake is the only thing I’m disproving here. I’m well aware in this scenario that the cop is mostly pointless
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That's statistically fallacious.

16 targets, I pick one out of a hat, I have an ~80% chance of calling someone town. Look at me I'm the fucking cop!
 
Anyway he’s fucked off again so u can probably just lynch him. Hasn’t seemed interested in this convo at all
 
couldve just been setting up a fake cop claim tbh
ive seen watson reach the end game in pretty much every game ive seen her in
it couldve been a gambit to help her odds of coasting to the finish
 
The problem is you're calculating the odds that the result is strictly correct which is useless, your baseline for how reliable a result is should be vs random chance.

Obviously due to most players being town RDK shouldn't go "HEY I HIT GODFATHER", but he should hesitate to clear him, because he has a 50% chance of getting an innocent off scum by default
 
Not really cos if you’re assuming there’s 2 scum left then the one you have an inno on is never a priority until the other flips and you see whether they’re the godfather or not
 
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