Either there's 1 scum/indie in which case Rug must be telling the truth and he shot whom he said he shot
If there's 2, hey don't have equity with each other cause I don't see there being 6 scum... probably... so Rug as either faction would be hesitant to claim someone else's kill
So firstly, I thought I'd split this up into a few post. Mainly, it's so that I can be lazy if I decide I CBA writing more, but it's also easier to read this way. After RDK's flip, I went back through when he claimed, to see what actually transpired. See the below exchange.
My initial read of this was "this looks very comfortable for RDK". A few questions come to mind. Why does Poyser even care for his flavour? I had a quick skim, and while it's possible I missed some posts, I didn't see him express any interest in anyone else's flavour. To me, that comes across as scum going through a checklist of what they "should" be asking, without really any regrd for whether it would be something they actually think is important. More telling than that, though, is that his reaction to the cop claim is to throw his hands up and offer no actual opinion on it. He fencesits. One would think that, if he were suspicious of the claim, his reaction to it would include that. Instead, he just says he doesn't know what to make of it.
Then, we have a few posts from just before RDK claims. At this point, the wagon is shifting over to him.
He pretty much begins laying the groundwork for a defence. He claims that he doesn't like that he hasn't shown up, but then offers a vague "doesn't feel right" to suggest that he's not a fan of the direction. Then he asks Gad what his argument on RDK is, and decides that its "not mentioning any of the flipped scum". Not only did Gad never say this, it's also something he would know is not true. This is part of a wider point, but it essentially gives RDK something soft to defend, and Poyser has given himself room to defend RDK and push elsewhere. It should be noted that RDK has a cop claim breadcrumbed - scum probably would have thought that it would be fairly effective in swaying the votes. And also, the issue that Poyser himself has given about RDK's play, that he didn't show up, doesn't actually do a credible job of establishing his suspicion. It ties his suspicion to his activity, which avoids getting into his posts and thus making him look bad. RDK doesn't miss his chance to defend against both of these points - Poyser's, and also the post of Poyser's where Poyser is attributing something obviously false to Gad.
One thing that struck me here was that RDK was content with simply answering duly - he makes sure that he's responded, but he doesn't do anything with it. I mean, he could turn it back onto Poyser - "why are you suspecting me for something that you know better on" etc. The reverse of that of course would be to appeal to Poyser - a Town Poyser that's in flux and seems to be sort of siding wth him, you would think he would be, well, appealing a bit more. He might be looking to turn the first post into a post gainst Gad for saying that, because it's demonstratably untrue, or he might want to smooth over his activity reasoning so Poyser can buy into that and agree.
Most telling of all here though is that, despite Poyser claiming it's RDK's actvity that bothers him, he never follows up with RDK's response.
Instead, Poyser feeds him content. RDK has come back, claimed, and then is prepared to check out again. Poyser notices that, and instead of asking why he isn't offering anything, he feeds it to him. You may have guessed this one, but of course, there was no follow through from Poyser on this either. RDK's response below:
As an aside, I have a hard time believing that scum RDK is content with offering something this half-baked in response to a Poyser that's town. In what world would "I dunno, who forced Rugrat to claim, lynch him" be compelling? Poyser doesn't press this, he just leaves it.
This whole interaction feels to me like scum theatre. They're just going through a checklist to make sure bases are covered, but there isn't really anything to indicate that either are concerned with beating or catching the other. For Poyser to be town here, he's sleeping at the wheel - he identifies some areas of concern but just let's them go without even so much as a prod, and RDK for his part has Poyser leaning in favour of him, and offers the bare minimum in terms of getting him on his side and keeping him there.
So first thing to note here is that Poyser is still yet to actually take a position on RDK's claim. He just fencesits, and joins the wagon that RDK starts. They have some interaction where RDK brings Fang to the table, Poyser tells RDK his claim, RDK corrects a minor point in an attempt to "convince" Poyser of his direction, then Poyser agrees and joins him. It's again, a checkbox excercise. It reads like it's been scripted in the scum chat, RDK gives a direction like he should be, Poyser hums and hars about it, but then comes on board, and still fails to give any real read on the situation. He does, however, make sure that he treats RDK's claim as solid when discussing what it means for Fang.
So first thing here, I've already stated my suspicion of the claim, and said I found it weird RDK just followed his results without being a bit suspicous of them. Poyser had nothing to say there. Ultra enters, and he also finds the claim weird. And Poyser... is skeptical of the claim in isolation? What? What part of anything he has said here up until now gives the impression that he doubts the claim? He hasn't took any position, he's just sat on the fence and then followed RDK on his lynch. Now that the claim has some momntum against it, Poyser moves to make sure that he's on record about his concerns. Why not make these concerns evident when he's, you know, reacting to the claim?
Poyser is the first one to bring up the issue with the scum case - why does RDK clear Watson and not the Godfather. Slight issue with this though - if there is no Godfather for him to know he can safely claim Cop, who would he be using it on? All of them would check Guilty. While I'm at it, what part of the claim does Poyser even object to, because it's not the results and it doesn't appear to be the existance of a cop either. And it should be noted, this defence comes when the claim is receiving momentum against it. Before this, he was all "brain hurts can't think".
Considering the grief you’ve given me about cp and fang interacting it’s kinda weird you just dismiss rdk faking a wrong result on his teammate if he’s scum
Nothing else really to add to that part - he defends the claim over the same points Gram did, and then taps out because he left again. Not much to read into.
I did think it was odd Poyser seemingly had such a hard time wrapping his head around the idea RDK would tie himself to a team mate through a cop claim. If it weren't for Watson getting bigger specifically on that night, that's a pretty straightforward way of removing them both from PoE. It comes with inherent risk, but the type of risk that's necessary when you're down a couple team members early off and still have a long ways to go.
He also seemed really hardheaded in the whole Fang discussion.
His claim that he's a desperado that dies unconditionally makes it...quite a bit difficult for me to feel the need to call his alignment though, and I don't see the play angle here if he's scum at all. We're always making him use it no question.
This part is going to be focused on how Poyser approached the end of day 2, where CP was lynched. He claims to have been on the right side of that, but he wasn't really. This part is going to be fairly tenuous, but it's just to set the scene:
He basically is passive around CP being lynched. When CP is still invested in defending, he posits that maybe CP is town, which happens to fall in line with what RDK is pushing. Of course, RDK has the cop claim in his pocket, so he's pushing it harder. I found this interesting because the difference between how he pursues this and joins this is night and day to how he was vs Ekko. He votes CP to say he was on him, and he has a few posts earlier where he agrees with Ultra's read and defers to Ultra on it (more on this in a minute), but he never actually pushes it. He's not campaigning for votes nor is he interacting with CP. He's taking a backseat and watching it play out. See:
Deffo wouldn’t advocate for a blind lynch now we actually have time. If he’s town I’d rather keep him around as he’s easily been the best town player of the past year other than last game when he was DEVASTATINGLY OUTPLAYED by me and flower
I really don't think Town CP sees he is at risk of being lynched, asks why he's being voted and then disappears again, looks like he's just treading water to me.
Brother there’s literally no need to use an execute if there’s none of your team in danger of being lynched. You can use it, but if you’re gonna get a mislynch or a no lynch anyway then why bother
This comes shortly after he posts asking for more votes on CP - he very quickly moves away, and I have to say, it's terribly unfortunate he just happens to be mindmelding with scum here too.
For the last note on this, remember Poyser just deferred to Ultra on CP. Here s what he had to say about me suggesting the same (ignoring that I also brought up my own reasoning, mind):
He did exactly the same thing. Doesn't add up at all, we both subbed in so both were in the same position.
Last part will be how Poyser interacted with Watson, compared to how Craig nteracted with Watson. Given that it's 4am, I will need to try and do this in work, but the cliffnotes there is that both of them draw relevant posts from her, or try to, while offering minimal input off the back of said input. Like it's almost identical lol.
His claim that he's a desperado that dies unconditionally makes it...quite a bit difficult for me to feel the need to call his alignment though, and I don't see the play angle here if he's scum at all. We're always making him use it no question.
I went over this earlier, being able to claim that his target was jailed gives his survival a chance, because he could just say he tried to shoot PoE slot and that's it. I think the claim is nonsense.
I don't know if we can bank on him shooting. He was likely to be jailed, I could see him thinking he would be jailed and thus saving the shot for another day. If we speculate that his kill went off then I would agree he was redirected, but I think it's unlkely that scum have a redirector that can direct kills, all the more so if there is a Vig.
I'm okay with lynching Rugrat today. I just need to do the groundwork for Poyser because I believe he should be next up.
Anyway @Ultra I do think the angle that "Poyser isn't giving himself much room" is beng given more credence than it's worth. Scum have been annihilated this game, basically from start to finish, so there isn't going to be a clear cut plan to winning. His motivation could be to simply survive the day, and then he can try to argue that he would next box himself in as scum - it doesn't have to be a strong compelling reason. And look, that's exactly what he's chosen to appeal to. He could have been reading over the thread or probing players to discern who the last scum is, instead, he's defendng himself through a claim and then asking for the scum motivation behind it. It's so evidently scum sided, it makes no sense for a townie to just attack the idea of suspicion on him when he has been in lockstep with scum several times this game. Like, I'll bring up the Watson stuff, it's just a whole lot of nothing that goes nowhere.
I don't know if we can bank on him shooting. He was likely to be jailed, I could see him thinking he would be jailed and thus saving the shot for another day. If we speculate that his kill went off then I would agree he was redirected, but I think it's unlkely that scum have a redirector that can direct kills, all the more so if there is a Vig.
I'm okay with lynching Rugrat today. I just need to do the groundwork for Poyser because I believe he should be next up.
Well from the position of him being scum and crafting a fake claim that would allow him to win I think it's frankly terrible.
He'd basically have to bet he could get by on WIFOM the entire time and not anticipate the general reception to be "great use it ASAP". I mean I'm of the opinion that if he doesn't do it tonight and then just plays coy or shrugs it off that's a policy lynch. As long as we tell the Jailer not to target him he has nothing. And he should be able to anticipate all of the above when thinking of what to claim.
Like the bottom line is that he's basically put himself in a position where he has to resolve himself, so
*I'm not even defending him so much as I'm saying I don't even know if I'm required to think about it as long as I can count on town not excusing him if he survives past the next night
I don't know if we can bank on him shooting. He was likely to be jailed, I could see him thinking he would be jailed and thus saving the shot for another day. If we speculate that his kill went off then I would agree he was redirected, but I think it's unlkely that scum have a redirector that can direct kills, all the more so if there is a Vig.
I'm okay with lynching Rugrat today. I just need to do the groundwork for Poyser because I believe he should be next up.
He seemed very very convinced he was going to die and needed to shoot, read his last posts. I doubt he backs down from that. Only in terms of his target I would say.
I went over this earlier, being able to claim that his target was jailed gives his survival a chance, because he could just say he tried to shoot PoE slot and that's it. I think the claim is nonsense.
Watson just responds to him quoting Mango, out of nowhere, to ask this, and he gives her a nice and comfy answer. These scum players are soooo safe with talking to Poyser. Nice and comfortable, no concern about how they're perceived or what he might think of them. They get little interactions in that go nowhere and do nothing, and Poyser never presses anything back at them. Charmin soft.
I'm down for an Elmo lunch my main gripe with straight up scum reading him fully is his approach this game is very hardcore and he tends to really try this hard as town. But the points he's been making recently are... heavily speculative. So, soft scum lean, not opposed, but he's been playing within his town range Thoughts?
I'm 50/50 on Gad but he's so LHF and it's easy for his reactions to be weaponized against him. But he seems frustrated and it makes it harder to determine whether to read into that frustration. Fucks his reads too. If I were to ISO flower vs gad rn I'd only find a bunch of "no you" tier posts. Not worth it
No to CP lynch, I want him to cook My soft sidedness appeases irl again
Watson responds to me (will quote that interaction below), Poyser out of nowhere prompts her to tell him where she should be voting. Like he's giving her a nice reminder to make sure she offers some input on the lynch. And so she happens to give a nice large screed where she says she wants to lynch Ekko but maybe he's town, soft scum read. Gad is the second one she mentions and she's 50/50 and doesn't actually have a read. Doesn't want to lynch CP because she wants him to cook. Not exactly saying anything of note there is she? And instead of pointing out that this whole post manages to not actually make a single solid read, all he has to say on it is "interesting". Really? What's interesting about it? There's nothing there!
QUOTE="Poyser, post: 414425, member: 1906"] Ah yes, rolling scum. That notoriously relaxing experience [/QUOTE]
I had RDK as town but probably gonna have to bring him into poe since he wasn’t really interested in lynching CP and also hard town read Watson for reasons I never saw him explain
I checked btw and RDK didn’t hard defend Watson D2. It was one post towards the end of day where he said he thinks Watson is town and doesn’t need to claim in response to Ekko. I don’t think it was super obvious
Watson, why did you think this ISO was so pressing for you that you absolutely needed to see all of his posts in isolation? Feels a bit performative to me, especially given that your conclusion wasn't originally clear until you were asked for it.
No I don't think I am, you kept asking "please thread-senpai, please ISO Nibel for me" and then when no one did, you said you were angry and did it yourself. So I'm asking, what made that so pressing for you?
I can be sad and get high and pack while enjoying Mafia
Instead of rawdogging me front and center about irl obligations because you don't have obligations touch grass, can you please I dunno Ask me what you need? Tell me what observations you're interested in hearing? What's pressing for you so I address it while I have the time?
I pushed you when I was scum and you were town? When? Iirc I've used this meta to scum read you correctly when I was town once and to town read you when I was scum
TBH, it's only really two quotes, but he does make an effort to lead where he wants the discussion to go, and gives her that platform. Like I said at the start, his initial suspicion on her was easy enough to defend that it doesn't condemn her while also making him look like he's trying to solve.
He seemed very very convinced he was going to die and needed to shoot, read his last posts. I doubt he backs down from that. Only in terms of his target I would say.
Again I think you're giving too much credence to a claim from a player that's basically waiting to lose. It's ultimately not even going to matter because he likely will get a shot off anyway, but there is no reason to try to come up with a plan he has when he tried to turn the lynch away from RDK and after failing to do, would basically have no viable path to victory. Doing something that "doesn't make sense" is pretty much his only available option.
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