A few notes:
I can vibe with this read. So far I feel like Lethal has been happy to bystand a bit this game. I don't hold the activity against him, but when he has been here, I got the impression his observations were not adding much to the conversation. if I'm charitable, i could say this is just down to him needing to get into the game. It's certainly possible. But I'd like to see more.
Can you explain how Aurelian's flip will help with your read on Poyser? I think it's pretty clear that Poyser was under no real threat and didn't need to claim, so him doing so should, at the very least, earn him enough of the benefit to have his claim treated independently of Aurelian entirely. Even if Aurelian flips Pro-Town, I think I'm more inclined to believe two pro-town Indies than I am to get into the rabbit hole of "well what if Poyser isn't being very truthful". It's not a hard clear, because I assume he is capable of thinking flexibly, but I haven't seen anyone bring forward a reason as to what he benefits as scum here.
Was Craig scum in that game? based on Ekko's response to him earlier about being easy to discredit, I assumed he was Town.