Just wanted to quickly share my thoughts/findings before I catch up.
First, on Fang:
So it looks like Fang claimed indie out of sheer necessity. That's the only reasonable explanation I can think of I had assumed there's no reason for mafia to do so, but if he has no (free) fake claims available, he either faces the risk of getting counterclaimed in a sea of townies vs claiming an indie which probably exists but won't step up to risk correcting him.
Or at least that *would* be the risk calculus, if it weren't for the presence of Generic Townies. My best guess is that he wasn't aware those actually existed before he bluffed a power role early on, and then he ended up putting himself into a corner.
In short I think I misread him because of a misplaced assumption, and because I gave him too much credit. Interesting stuff.
---
Next, Lethal.
So I was ISO'ing Lethal in the night and I think he strikes me as a really likely partner candidate for Fang
Here are quotes from his ISO either mentioning Fang, or context surrounding him. It's a bit scarce, but:
Wow, so much content since I was last on.
I had a skim on the train to and from the cricket today, obvs gonna do a better rehash with direct points etc later, but I did note that the Aurelian vs Ratchet thing was kinda uncomfortable to see (they have legit heat??) and very distracting.
Aurelian has claimed an indy-ish role, and this alone prevents me from thinking Ekko is scum protecting a team mate. I've not really liked what I've seen from him.
I will give soft lean of town for CP who is actually playing this time, although I say this with 2% confidence cos I always struggle to read him with confidence.
Gonna finish my re-read whilst comfy at the PC and get some more reads/leans out
Yoshi's entrance stunk, for one. I've gotten past Aurelian's "sorry i'm late" and then being overly defensive reaction to copping minor heat for it
Notice that these two mentions aren't real reads or leans, they're just observations without implicating him. Instead of explaining why he suspects Fang, he just explains why he suspects Ekko by association. If youlook at the rest of his posts he does due diligence for why he suspects players like Ekko/Tweet/Me but there's 0 depth here. And that's suspicious because a partner of Fang is less likely to have genuine progression, and more likely to feel the obligation to read him as scum but treat it as an afterthought and place the focus on players they can develop as suspects.
Now on to the juicier stuff:
- Yoshi's entrance wasn't that decent in the sense that being ~190 posts into the game, he says he misses Ratchet on discord and then specs on private convos happening.
Suggests Haza is tunneling Aurelian off of 2 posts? This from the guy who has played ~2 games in total? Oddly defensive of someone with very specific wording. Lots of fluff posting. Oh the new to mafia comes once Poyser huh's him at the tunnel comment. Interesting. Hadn't bothered looking at posts before Pein tagged him in. Idk, I just don't really think it's positive play to ignore a portion of posts because you hadn't arrived to the thread yet.
-
Haza picks at Aurelian's entry post. Aur hits back with a fluffy explanation of his observations. Interesting that the post is liked by Retrolize, as there's nothing I'd say is likeable about it - Post 195 - Haza, Ratchet with a lot of questions early on which I like. Shows they're at least somewhat interested in game solving. Haza with a weak tell of Pein? Impressed. I'll never get that guy.
- Ultra nitpicking at Evans for 'making empty observations without drawing any sort of conclusion with them' is a moot issue cos he was forming a conclusion given Poyser's soft town lean on me. Interesting statement to be made from all of that discussion (as I've said here tonight).
I was liking this but then you've gone the tunnel comment as well. Haza made 2 posts regarding your entry post.
- Yoshi claims second game, but then Ultra provides context that Yoshi gives benefit to his friends in these games...based off a sample pool of one game. No idea why Yoshi has to say he knows Ral on a personal level either.
I can see the formations of a Aurelian/Ultra/Yoshi alignment here
A similar pattern emerges here, where Fang gets maybe barely implicated, but Lethal does not miss the opportunity to tie it to another player. Tied with a bow by a complete nonsense conclusion about a Fang/Yoshi/Ultra scum team.
Now the reason why this is a major red flag is because
*Fang has already claimed Ind and Lethal is well aware of this*. So I think this is a big TMI slip. There's no reason for Lethal to be thinking in the dimensions of partnerships with Fang not only claiming, but by his own admission, he believed him!: Leans:
Town - Ratchet, CP, Dalton, Alco, Haza
Fence - Evans (I need to unselfishly view this slot in fairness)
Scum - Ultra, Yoshi, Ekko, Retro, Tweet
Blocked - Pein
Everyone else is null atm
Would've had Poyser on town until his claim and Aurelian on scum until his claim.
Ultra/Yoshi I'm sensing a team dynamic, Ekko is gut feel based on Xmas mafia, Retro a hunch and Tweet cos he's not engaging Poyser.
Town leans are a mix of soft to strong, Haza being the strongest (if not a straight out read). CP seems more involved and actually hunting. Dalton gut feel. Alco gut feel. Ratchet doesn't seem any different to how I remember him on WG.
Finally, votes are a good indication of where his skin-in-the-game lies, and his pattern at EoD was to Vote Ekko, then hop on the Tweet wagon when it appeared, and then only lynched Fang at the last possible second:
INTERESDEAN
why vote ekko and not tweet despite completely backing my case against tweet and even doing your own work to enhance it
@Lethal you're voting Ekko, who really wants to keep Aurelian around who's at -1. Be a gem.
He's afk and Ekko is live
Will the right outcome prevail?
If the right outcome is Aurelian flipping, yes
Fair
~6 hours, could press for a claim? Wishful thinking? Both are in my pool.
lmao now you're piggy backing the coward approach from last game too? Do you even have any original thoughts? Come the fuck on you can't believe this dribble.
I'm more than happy to hammer Aurelian, but do we pursue Ekko who is spinning himself wild here?
No sold my reads to. Where are his?
I'm happy with Ekko, Tweet or Aurelian tbf.
Ok. I'll be keeping him in my sights for tomorrow though.
Unvote
Vote: Tweet
Why is reading skill suddenly pertinent to the conversation? Both Aurelian and CP using it as a deflective tactic?
^ Cherry on top is that if you look at the vote counter, he's not even the one who hammered.
Others have brought up how his behavior is suspicious in general, lots of activity excuses “I’m catching up (despite coming across as well informed)”, etc. But I think this in particular is pretty damining
[Vote lynch Lethal] I also think his flip will offer some indirect info about Tweet which is good.
