Game Elden Ring Mafia

[Emil]

i have had a theory that mafia rolecopped soul hence their confidence in him lying. i mean guy didnt even use his fake claim

this points more negatively against soul and in some way against phenom

mafia rolecopped poyser*

 

[The X]

There is a chance OLU was Vigged, and Poyser mech-killed. That seems fairly plausible to me.

What happened to the faction kill, then? That's two nights in a row without one.

 

[Evans]

if u r asking me this question it means u, in some capacity, shape, or form do town read soul or atleast not scum read him and thats bizarre to me given his gameplay so you deserved to be asked do u have any reason to belive soul is otherwise? (belive soul is townie)

That’s a very big leap. I’ve never played with Soul before and honestly haven’t read too deep into his posts whilst I’ve been pursuing my own pushes.

Asking why you think someone is scum doesn’t mean the person thinks they’re town.

 

[The X]

also poyser flipped and his role had a fake claim but fangs role didnt?

Poyser having a fake role claim and then saying he was Dung Eater is heartbreaking.

 

[Evans]

Also Poyser not using his fake speaks to his behaviour as playing for town rather than ulterior motives IMO.

 

[The X]

soul this game has been mostly invested in flavor solving and not threadplay solving. the only remotely townish post from him was his long read post which he actually didnt even follow upon and push the scum reads in it


if u r asking me this question it means u, in some capacity, shape, or form do town read soul or atleast not scum read him and thats bizarre to me given his gameplay so you deserved to be asked do u have any reason to belive soul is otherwise? (belive soul is townie)

I think Soul's wagonomics analysis post gives him good town cred. I think that maybe he did focus on Poyser a bit too much, but he sincerely did not buy Poyser's claim. I thought how he handled himself around Fang was genuine. I also did think he gave time and read me and Ultra's cases on Lethal and made and informed decision to join that wagon with us.

There's also another thing. In his big reads list, he read me as town because he thought that it would be tough for me to fake emotions. Soul said 'BLD seems genuine, if he's faking this, then I've been fooled, kudos to him' (paraphrasing). I feel like for Soul to make that comment, to appeal to my emotions, is just some real inception shit and I see that as him being sympathetic to my plight this game and thinking I'm a genuine townie.

 

[Ratchet]

But you said you’d still be willing to vote to lynch Ultra today.
Why would you vote to lynch Ultra if you’re confident in saying Lethal is confirmed? Unless you know already that they’re both town?

I don't think Lethal and Ultra are scum buddies. I would have a very hard time ever coming around to that. An Ultra Scum flip would remove the hard confirmation from Lethal, but positionally he would still lean more Townie due to having been instrumental in the wagon growing on Ultra yesterday. A Town flip from Ultra mans Lethal is either Town or Godfather.

 

[Emil]

poyser said there was a specific way to kill him. i wonder if thats being triggered. its role doesnt rly say how it works

 

[Ratchet]

What happened to the faction kill, then? That's two nights in a row without one.

I couldn't say.

 

[Evans]

I don't think Lethal and Ultra are scum buddies. I would have a very hard time ever coming around to that. An Ultra Scum flip would remove the hard confirmation from Lethal, but positionally he would still lean more Townie due to having been instrumental in the wagon growing on Ultra yesterday. A Town flip from Ultra mans Lethal is either Town or Godfather.

I’m not suggesting they are buddies. I just don’t understand why you’d lynch Ultra if you think Lethal is already confirmed town.

 

[Tempest]

First of all, y'all should've pushed that lynch on ultra through. That EOD was ridiculous. Mafia tried and failed to kill ratchet. Who has ratchet been trying to push? Black Dragon and Ultra. This is elementary guys.

vote Ultra

 

[Tempest]

I'm Ranni btw, the ability from n1 is called Grace of the Full Moon.

 

[Ultra]

First of all, y'all should've pushed that lynch on ultra through. That EOD was ridiculous. Mafia tried and failed to kill ratchet. Who has ratchet been trying to push? Black Dragon and Ultra. This is elementary guys.

vote Ultra

lol

 

[The X]

It's not really - it was to make an argument that I had not yet seen made.
Right, because most of your defence would have been "that's not what I meant".
If you think I wanted to spare myself an extended back and forth, then you're really not as familiar with my play as you think you are. It's quite simple really. I had noticed behaviour I wanted to call attention to, and I wanted to do it properly in the form of a case. The day started about halfway through my work day, so I couldn't really start there. I got back and after eating etc, ended up going to sleep. I woke up in the middle of the night, and then a few hours later got started on putting it together. That took about 2-3 hours in total. Not once did the thought "I really need to not give Ultra a chance to defend himself here" cross my mind.

As for reads, here is what I wrote up over the night:

1. Lethal - Lean Town. Should be resolved if Ultra is Town.
3. Rugrat - Null/Town. Don't have much to read from, even if he is broadly in agreement.
4. Phenom - Null. Haven't given his slot due consideration. Could be a blind spot.
5. Retrolize - Lean Town. I think some of her thought processes have been very genuine.
6. Ekko - Null/Town. He's losing stock but I don't want to hold his absence against him.
8. RDK - Lean Town. Looked pretty organic vs Aurelian, Ekko's incessant tunnel is giving me pause. Not because I think Ekko looks townie, I'm struggling to see his angle. Will need to see how his Day 3 holds.
9. TPein - Lean Scum. Who really knows with T-Pein, I think he has had some degree of manipulativeness. Think his flip is going to be needed eventually.
10. Poyser - Indie. Generally suspect he's probably harmful, but I don't have any real reason to get rid of him right now. He was heavily town read without claiming Indie, so he could just be telling the truth.
11. CraigPelton - Lean Town. His character claim is probably needed sooner or later, I do think it would be very bold of Scum to claim to be responsible for stopping all attacks. Will see how tonight unfolds, but probably not too interested in re-evaluating without some severe degradation in his posting.
12. One Last Username - Null/Scum. His Lethal vote is pretty noteworthy, other than that it's the same old AM. For better or worse.
13. Big Man - Null. I remember he made some posts that were fine, but I don't have much to work with.
14. Ultra - Lean Scum. I do think there is a viable angle for him to be town, but there is too much posturing for my tastes. Probably lynched Day 3.
15. Arp Bladstrum - Lean Town. I don't see Arp having the boldness to commit to a posting gimmick like this as Scum, moreover I think there has been too many genuine attempts at solving for him to be faking it all. Fairly comfortable with this read.
16. Evans - Null/Scum. I struggle to find much of a reason to commit to a town read here. I don't think he's scum with Ultra, but when I think about other scenarios wherein I'm wrong so far, Evans comes to mind as a player I've looked over.
17. Dalton - Lean Scum. A lot of his content has struck me as surface level, and his choice of votes have left much to be desired. Could actually be scum with most players.
18. Yoshi - Null/Town. I don't see much attempt to actually play the game, and most of his posting is just going with the flow. It's going to be hard to get much of anything out of him. Think I will keep trying, with him staying firmly in the POE.
19. Doddsy - Lean Town. I've liked him so far, would like to see a bit more. Reads at a high-level were okay but shallow, he is getting a pass through the game.
20. Black Legged Dragon - Lean Scum. If Ultra is Scum I don't see how X isn't honestly. I've been trying to read him as town to not get myself pidgeon-holed into developing all scum reads from one, but some of his takes have been bizarre. Proposing RDK as a lynch option was more or less the final nail in this coffin. My expectation is that if Ultra is Scum, he is going to be heavily against him tomorrow if Ultra doesn't claim any hide targets. If Ultra is Town, I think X probably is just Town with him.
21. Hans Tweetenberg - Null. Meta reads on this guy seem to be all over the place. I did not like the "I would lynch me D1" argument. Quite liked how he started D2, though. Hopefully he gets his edge back again tomorrow.
22. Soulkiller - Indie/Null. Lazy analysis says he just needs Poyser dead or something. A Lyncher. Not sure I buy into that exactly, but his focus on easy-to-engage-with discussion points makes it hard to town read. He could be anything almost. Big day tomorrow for him.
23. Alco - Null. Sliding down the reads as the game goes on. I have generally liked his posts, but they're all so safe and easy it's hard to give him much credit for them. I think if I really must pick a side, I'd pick Town, but not with any degree of confidence.

I really don't like being tied with Ultra, for better or for worse. That doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

I suggested RDK as a possible CFD just because I was rereading him and Fang's interactions and thinking about Ekko's POV. I do think RDK is town, but I've also been tricked by him before. I tossed his name out to see what people had to say. I think the CFD was a bit of a wild time and I wanted to see reactions and also not have a no lynch.

 

[Tempest]

Ultra and Black Dragon are scum. Ekko might be scum with them as well given he is suddenly trying to shade me now

 

[Ratchet]

I’m not suggesting they are buddies. I just don’t understand why you’d lynch Ultra if you think Lethal is already confirmed town.

Because I think Ultra is still pretty likely to be Scum? You seem to be confused on my position here.

I am happy to take Ultra's claim as a vouch for Lethal, and put him to the side. Me saying "I think Lethal is cleared" is not to say that I believe Ultra must have hid behind him. It is to say that if Ultra is Town, Lethal almost certainly is, and if Ultra is Scum, Lethal is very likely Town too.

 

[The X]

The problem is, the plan doesn't really prove Ultra's claim whatsoever. It just helps Lethal's case if anything, which was the idea behind having him be the target. You kind of went from "yeah okay, I can see him being scum here" to "he's town we should vote elsewhere". Lynching Poyser there really was only to the benefit of scum, at least in the short term.

In any case, let's move on. You've been presented with the likely outcome that your major suspect yesterday, Lethal, in in fact Town, and Poyser was broadly what he had claimed (not Pro-Town, but Neutral). Where do we go from here?

Craig, Tweet, Dalton.

 

[Ultra]

Ultra and Black Dragon are scum. Ekko might be scum with them as well given he is suddenly trying to shade me now

These reads are highly convenient, and wrong.

 

[Evans]

Because I think Ultra is still pretty likely to be Scum? You seem to be confused on my position here.

I am happy to take Ultra's claim as a vouch for Lethal, and put him to the side. Me saying "I think Lethal is cleared" is not to say that I believe Ultra must have hid behind him. It is to say that if Ultra is Town, Lethal almost certainly is, and if Ultra is Scum, Lethal is very likely Town too.

Okay, I might be being stupid here - but if Ultra flips scum. How does that confirm Lethal?

 

[Ratchet]

lol

Given that you were already aware of what he said, though, and now that he has said it it's whatever, you trying to angle my position as suspicious looks extremely opportunistic.