Game Elden Ring Mafia

[Grammaton]

Day 4 Vote Count 2

Tiara 1 - Alco
Ekko 1 - Evans
Rugrat 8 - Tiara, Big Man, Dalton, BPD, Ekko, Soulkiller, Doddsy, Arp
Evans 1 - RDK
RDK 2 - Retro, Phenom
Doddsy 2 - CP, Rugrat

With 16 alive, 9 votes to lynch. You have about 4 hours remaining.

*No extensions, manage the time you have. I'm happy to extend night phases for preferred start times, but I dont want to hear complaints about having to wait for night to be posted.​

 

[Rugrat]

for those of you who think “well I might as well hammer” since he’s L-1, but have a town

The split is probably 11/4/1, with two bad nights that could very easily put us at 8/4/1 and at basically MyLo

I’m fine with simply being vigged or the SK which they almost certainly will since I’ll be in both their scum reads to get me but it’s a massive risk as lynching me

 

[Dalton]

for those of you who think “well I might as well hammer” since he’s L-1, but have a town

The split is probably 11/4/1, with two bad nights that could very easily put us at 8/4/1 and at basically MyLo

I’m fine with simply being vigged or the SK which they almost certainly will since I’ll be in both their scum reads to get me but it’s a massive risk as lynching me

vig said he has no shots and sk wont kill you cos you're an easy mislynch

lol

 

[Rugrat]

vig said he has no shots and sk wont kill you cos you're an easy mislynch

lol

Why wouldn’t the SK shoot me, when they need to kill mafia

 

[Rugrat]

From their pov of course

 

[Rugrat]

Before anyone says :slip:

 

[Dalton]

Why wouldn’t the SK shoot me, when they need to kill mafia

sk's first priority is surviving themselves, you being around means there is an easy lynch target that is not them.

 

[Rugrat]

sk's first priority is surviving themselves, you being around means there is an easy lynch target that is not them.

Nobody is SK hunting as we need to catch mafia. SK can just play to their town meta so are unlikely to be high on PoE

 

[Dalton]

Nobody is SK hunting as we need to catch mafia. SK can just play to their town meta so are unlikely to be high on PoE

sk can be mislynched just like town can be mislynched. Except sk has to survive to win whereas a townie can eat a mislynch for info in situations. so they've got to balance their own actions with leaving scum available that can feasibly be lynched (instead of themself).

ie SK would realistically be shooting at people they think are scum, but not a lot of others do.

For example, if i was sk, i shouldn't shoot at you, cos you're probably getting lynched tomorrow anyway (in the hypothetical that you were to be let live here).
Instead I would shoot Doddsy or someone who is more difficult to run a lynch on atm because they're not high on other people's lists like he is on mine. That way I would get Doddsy and you to flip in night/day respectively who are my two scumreads. Whereas if I shot you tonight, it'd be much harder to get doddsy lynched and so i could be on the chopping block.

if you were SK you'd have three reasonable people to shoot at (your three scumreads, me/doddsy/SoulKiller) cos none of us look that likely to be lynched tomorrow (i think i can convince ratchet/BLP etc to lynch Doddsy with me but maybe not). You wouldn't shoot, say, RDK, who nearly got lynched today and is likely back on the table tomorrow. (I know you town read him anyway but you get my point).

let me know if that doesnt make sense

 

[Rugrat]

1. Lethal
3. Rugrat
4. Phenom
5. Retrolize
6. Ekko
8. RDK
11. CraigPelton
13. Big Man
15. Arp Bladstrum
16. Evans
17. Dalton
18. Yoshi
19. Doddsy
20. Black Legged Dragon
22. Soulkiller
23. Alco

Gonna take a punt at the scum team being Big Man, SK, Ace and Doddsy

 

[Rugrat]

Can’t really disagree with that Ace, it’s a good point - the caveat is that I’m beloved. Which just increases the chance of a mafia win

 

[Dalton]

Can’t really disagree with that Ace, it’s a good point - the caveat is that I’m beloved. Which just increases the chance of a mafia win

oh shit

i must have missed that.

unvote

let me think

 

[Dalton]

for those of you who think “well I might as well hammer” since he’s L-1, but have a town

The split is probably 11/4/1, with two bad nights that could very easily put us at 8/4/1 and at basically MyLo

I’m fine with simply being vigged or the SK which they almost certainly will since I’ll be in both their scum reads to get me but it’s a massive risk as lynching me

I understand this post now about two bad nights.

Worst case scenario is 6/4/1 if you flip town and then SK+Scum both hit town twice.

Then, if we mislynch again and scum hit town again, it becomes 4/4/1 (assuming SK doesn't shoot that night which would be self-suicide if he missed).

Someone check my math but I think even if you are a mislynch, we wouldn't be in mylo.

 

[Rugrat]

Current - 11/4/1
Me lynched - 10/4/1
Scum and SK shoot at town 8/4/1
Scum and SK shoot at town 6/4/1

it’s Mylo as if you lynch town at that point it’s 5/4/1 and then the best you’ve got is 4/3/1 going into the following day. In the very literal sense the game continues but town never win those.

current - 11/4/1
Scum and SK shoot - 9/4/1
We mislynch - 8/4/1
SK basically has to shoot me that night, but it’s not revealed.

 

[Rugrat]

Basically I’m saying the SK will have no choice but to shoot the second night, which gives us an extra day to solve as opposed to a functional MyLo

 

[Dalton]

Current - 11/4/1
Me lynched - 10/4/1
Scum and SK shoot at town 8/4/1
Scum and SK shoot at town 6/4/1

it’s Mylo as if you lynch town at that point it’s 5/4/1 and then the best you’ve got is 4/3/1 going into the following day. In the very literal sense the game continues but town never win those.

current - 11/4/1
Scum and SK shoot - 9/4/1
We mislynch - 8/4/1
SK basically has to shoot me that night, but it’s not revealed.

Except a sensible SK would not shoot at 5/4/1 so it would actually be, at worst, 4/4/1.

 

[Alco]

I just had some time to think and as most of you know, I have a nice history of frequently being mislynched.

In a lot of those scenarios, I'm usually seen in a positive daylight until later in the game where all of a sudden I become a target, people jump on and I'm thrown to the wayside (mostly because most of the time I don't bother defending myself very hard).
Somehow have the impression that this is exactly what's happening to Rugrat today and I don't like it.

It's a gut feeling and not anything concrete, I know, and I don't really care.
I don't think I'm prepared to take a gamble on lynching a beloved princess and losing another day (and potentially the game).

I think I'd prefer to lynch Phenom, tbh.

 

[Rugrat]

I’m not th

Except a sensible SK would not shoot at 5/4/1 so it would actually be, at worst, 4/4/1.

Town would need four correct mislynches in that scenario if the SK doesn’t shoot which is a functional MyLo

4/3/1 - day
3/3/1 - night
3/2/1 - day
2/2/1 - night
2/1/1 - day
2/1 - night
2/0 - day

 

[Dalton]

I just had some time to think and as most of you know, I have a nice history of frequently being mislynched.

In a lot of those scenarios, I'm usually seen in a positive daylight until later in the game where all of a sudden I become a target, people jump on and I'm thrown to the wayside (mostly because most of the time I don't bother defending myself very hard).
Somehow have the impression that this is exactly what's happening to Rugrat today and I don't like it.

It's a gut feeling and not anything concrete, I know, and I don't really care.
I don't think I'm prepared to take a gamble on lynching a beloved princess and losing another day (and potentially the game).

I think I'd prefer to lynch Phenom, tbh.

I think you're overthinking this tbh. Quite a few have been suss of Rugrat for quite a while. I think I was day 2 for instance.

That said, if rugrat is beloved shouldn't we just let the SK shoot him rather than lynching him to dodge any beloved princess stuff?

it would be in SK's interest to do it t...

 

[Dalton]

I’m not th

Town would need four correct mislynches in that scenario if the SK doesn’t shoot which is a functional MyLo

4/3/1 - day
3/3/1 - night
3/2/1 - day
2/2/1 - night
2/1/1 - day
2/1 - night
2/0 - day

with the numbers lower SK would eventually shoot i think anyway

if you're a townie, knowing you're likely dead sooner rather than later, would you be willing to be shot tonight to avoid beloved stuff?