Fate/Mafia - Game Thread

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Day 2

Ratchet

Resplendent
Advisor

Kurumi

Preeminent
Janitor kill... :giogio

I´m still upset about the outcome of last day tbh.
Me: Trying to solve it logical, warning everyone when T-Pein had 10 votes and giving him the chance to claim
T-Pein: "Leroy Jenkins!!!" *suiciding into his own lynch by selfhammering*

Stuff like this is why mafia has a way higher winning rate than town! It was far from being over. Why the hell could he not claim but instead get himself killed by selfvoting? This bullshit is just outright gamethrowing!

Vote lynch Juliet
 

Evans

Acclaimed
@Grammaton

You ready for Another 48 Hours?


pdh.gif
 

Evans

Acclaimed
I’ll be sporadic until I finish work in a few hours. Need to reply to some bits from yesterday day phase
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
Have some notes typed up from last night, they aren't particularly organized and may or may not be easy to follow, just going to dump them and get em out here
 

Emil

Average Diabellstar Witch Enjoyer
V.I.P. Member

Evans

Acclaimed
Have some notes typed up from last night, they aren't particularly organized and may or may not be easy to follow, just going to dump them and get em out here

One thing I wanted to reply to but needed to ask you first, why was I your first thought/target when discussing T-Pein potentially flipping town
 

Juliet

Illustrious
Tweet shaded me and I confronted him for not wanting to engage with me, he said he doesn't have to engage with me which means there was no genuine solving, it looked like he misrepped me, was getting in an argument with Ultra at the same time, and we eventually engaged with each other.

Kurumi said Tweet looks good for being genuine while I look worse. I saw it scummy how Kurumi did not give thoughts on Tweet's post where it looked like he misrepped me that made me scum read him and for Kurumi to have an opinion on me she would have first need to have an opinion on Tweet's post I talked about. This looked like to me Kurumi was fabricating her post because there was no progression on her thought process about Tweet and me. I have asked her to respond to 2 of my posts and she avoids them. It was scummy when Kurumi sheeped T-Pein for saying I tried to save a scummate.
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
Multi-ISO of Gram/Kurumi

This includes most of Kurumi’s posts and some of Gram’s. The only thing missing is her talking about Dofla.


Well, good luck @Evans Gramma can be super pushy, in my only OLF round I subbed in as mafia only to directly get my butt kicked badly by that guy :amazing

One of Kurumi's first posts in the game, and this is kind of an awkward post that kind of bolster's Grams credibility as town before that can possibly be established

- So outside of asking questions, how do you feel I should be trying to solve anyone?

- Is it purely coincidental you've gone straight to the Joygirl well?

- No animosity from a player who tends to get into heated conflict as town - whats your conclusion here? You may as well have commented on his avatar for all the relevance it would have

- So my read on Aurelian is TMI, but yours is ok?

Not a very good start.

Gram's first real mention of Joygirl is when he's addressing SK, and my best attempt at explaining this is that he is trying to make the insinuation that Soul is perhaps taking a swing at her due to personal bias? Not a great look, and isn't followed up on.

I´m never interpreting too much into opening / entrance posts so I don´t see anything sus about Juliet so far.

Don´t think that hime and SK are in a scum team together, openly agreeing so much to each other would make it easy for anyone to see a connection here, especially after they voted the same player and it was a mislynch. This however doesn´t mean that there can´t be one of them a member of mafia. To me their reasons for sussing Juliet feels constructed and one of them might take the opportunity to go along with it.

Also don´t think that Ultra and Evans would be bussing each other so hard from the start.

Personally I don´t get town vibes from Dofla, I still wonder what´s his reason for asking - and specifically asking me - if I was "Team Ultra" or "Team Evans".

As not sure what to think about both of them I could imagine hime and Dofla might be trying to pull a Bonnie & Clyde and probably rolled scum together? I know that´s not really based on anything than feelings and eventually far-fetched assumptions but it would be quite funny to me tbh^^

Have to read the posts of Cubey again but so far my feeling says he could just trying to lowkey blend in.

On the risk of players saying that I´m trying to kiss Gramma´s butt I still have to say he´s not giving me a scummy feeling, his post feel like gamesolving attempts so far.

Not sure if we should let Aurelian off the hook, in my only round on OLF so far he was in a scum team with Psychic and me (got later subbed by Ekko) and my impression is that he´s breaking quite easily when there´s pressure on him.

Can´t say much about the rest of the players so far, some of them I´ve never played with so I don´t know what their "usual" playstyle is like, so I need to read a bit more from them to be able to analyze their posts and make up my mind.

This is Kurumi's most substantial post, and a lot of it goes absolutely nowhere. She's doing the pairmatching thing between multiple players she doesn't quite have a read on and is mostly trying to establish grounds for doubt without giving away any freebies

The sole exception to this is Gram, and she comes across as very self aware making this read.


I'm giving Gram a slight town lean, just about everybody he asks a question to answers him like he's someone they gotta give a satisfactory answer to or else. I'm putting decent odds on there being at least one actual scum in there doing some actual appeasing.

How does this make him town? You do not think scum Gram would do this?

I think he´s talking more about the behaviour of the people Gram asked. If I got it right he thinks some of them tried to kiss Gram´s butt because they are scum and want to get town points from him. Funnily Tweet could be doing basically the same by giving Gram a town lean in this post while shading others for seemingly trying to get on his good side.

^ Kurumi noses in to a discussion about Gram and shores up Tweet's town read.

I wouldn’t lynch ultra at this point, and lynching for information is meh at best

I want to note the sentiment of this post, which Gram directs at Aurelian, because Kurumi drops this absolute stinker of a post next:

After catching up I have to say that Tweet looks better to me now as his posts give me the impression of being genuine while Juliet looks worse now.

REMINDER TO ALL: The big problem is that we somehow have to get 11 votes on a single player to get a lynch, so imo 3 wagons should be reduced to 2, otherwise it´s highly likely that we fail.

This is also the reason why I was still not firing out my own vote. My main suspects are Dofla and Juliet right now but them getting enough votes is not gonna happen I guess, so it will most likely have to be T-Pein or Ultra for me. Unless we get another wagon started that stacks up enough votes rather quickly, the odds for this are not quite good though.

Most of the time T-Pein hasn´t contributed any stuff that convinced me but then he came up with the argument about Juliet trying to save her scummate. So at this point I´d say the lynch which could give us more infos about different players would indeed be Ultra.

Vote lynch Ultra

I´m sorry if he would be town but like I said an Ultra lynch could help us figuring out more about several other players. First day lynches are always hard so we should try to get the most information out of it that we could get. If Ultra flips scum Juliet looks really bad. Dofla and Natalija on the other hand would look better. If Ultra flips town Dofla looks worse and T-Pein would also not look that good. It would not clear Juliet but she would look less bad as she was obviously not trying to save him.

This is probably the worst post in the entire game - no exaggeration. She went from Town reading me earlier, states T-Pein isn't really offering much, but defers to lynching me for "info".

Gram does not tear into this post in spite of his position around info lynches, which is really hard for me to wrap my head around.

What have you even been doing so far? I try to solve it logically by figuring out possible connections while you suggested to just vig you which is gamethrowing if you are town.

You seem to be very confident about it?

@Juliet I explained this in my post. And I have explained my read on Dofla already. I don´t see much gamesolving from you, just defensive posts that give me odd and not much townie vibes. Doesn´t help either that you now think that I look scummy in your opinion just from the one post you quoted.

Kurumi is kind of catching the waves of the existing suspicion of Juliet here, and I think this isn't a coincidence, and shows she's following along with the thread more closely than she's giving away after several players have already beaten this drum.

Well, fine, before we end up with a no lynch.

Change vote lynch T-Pein

Seems rather reluctant to actually toss a vote here, fake sentiment

Why would you be so sure that T-Pein flips town?

Joygirl shows bunnyears here and cannot resist sniping the scumslip/TMI angle on me when it comes up

- Joygirl feels very town to me too. Based on the game I played where she was scum, she basically avoided the thread like the plague and gave nothing of substance. There was something else she did that specifically pinged me in that game that I cant remember, but nothing shes said or done has recreated that this game

lol

This really tells me Gram hasn't been reading her posts, because aside from what I've quoted, really all Joygirl does is beat on about Dofla, who's not present to defend himself and is quite the easy thing to do if he's town.

I also checked her posts from Radiant, and the distinction really isn’t all that apparent at all. Actually, I’d say it strikes me as pretty similar. This doesn’t pass smell check. Gram doesn’t just toss out these kinds of reads without questioning a slot unless the disparity between play is super obvious. I can see this for someone like say, Aurelian, but not here.

Takeaway: I think there's some good equity between these two. If they're not partners, then at the very least it needs to be addressed why Gram is giving a pass to this slot, because any explanation I can come up with belies a t/t interaction. Town Gram would not miss digging into a transparent pocket attempt, Scum Gram could probably take the free town read and roll with it
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
One thing I wanted to reply to but needed to ask you first, why was I your first thought/target when discussing T-Pein potentially flipping town

It was something that was on my mind anyway - mostly because I think that I had questions about Tweet flipping wolf in the event T-Pein was town, so I circled back to initial suspect e.g. you

Got more to say on that incoming
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
Gram’s EoD

Unvote

Ultras recent posts read very much like setting up the board for tomorrow

Withdrawn? No, I still think he’s probably the best choice, but do you think I should be rushing him over the top or something here?

The point was to get him to the line so he can be pushed over it at the right time, rather than scrabbling for votes with 10 minutes to go

Like what do you actually think I’m doing here?

Checking my work mostly

I’ve already said ITT who else has my attention, if I’m expected to go trawling for your thoughts, you can do so for mine

Gram's end of day dance comes off as extremely insincere - the introduction of the possibility that I am preflipping T is apparently worthy enough for him to pause for consideration, but he has 0 follow up to this thought. He asks me rhetorically what he's doing here as if it's completely obvious, and I believe what he's trying to insinuate is that he's allowing more time for discussion/for him to claim.

There are a couple of major problems I have with this:

- His unvote is directly paired with an insinuation that I’m scum. Not “I need more time to think on this or to hear out arguments”. He knows there's really only one possible outcome of this retreat that isn’t T getting lynched, but he’s posturing as if he was totally not taking his finger off the scale after realizing I could possibly go over.

- The introduction of some tinfoil that I have TMI is suddenly worthy of pausing for consideration when he’s been townreading me and strongly scum reading T. This comes off as rather apathetic, I don’t think he’s invested in who goes here either way, in spite of his stated insistence on T.

- He showed very little interest in giving tangible conditional reads at the end of the day, and answered my question with a question:

if hes town, Id need to look at the rationale for people following on the wagon, as well as any posturing to look good by staying off it.

If hes scum, main priority would be forcing inactives into the game as I do think a lot of folk would look fairly good from him flipping scum

Also Ekko hiding is extremely out of character so big day for him tomorrow

Why dont you look at the wagon and tell me what you think

He gives a vague and non-committal response to both cases, and then shifts the burden on to me to answer questions, after already having accused me of pre-flipping. Which is essentially asking me to dig my own hole.

My last point, and I think this is the biggest gripe I have - I think there's a refusal to consider, from my perspective, what entertaining T as town actually does to benefit me, and him giving credibility to the argument that I’m preflipping is showing a lower level of town discretion than I would expect.

If I am scum stuck in a corner with T-Pein, why on earth do I start insinuating he might flip town and what the consequences of that situation are? Forget about setting the board for tomorrow - my goal here is to escape a lynch.

The irony is the implication of "preflipping" is that I'm trying to set up mislynches for the following day, but that seems more in line with what Gram is doing with this accusation.
 

Kurumi

Preeminent
Tweet shaded me and I confronted him for not wanting to engage with me, he said he doesn't have to engage with me which means there was no genuine solving, it looked like he misrepped me, was getting in an argument with Ultra at the same time, and we eventually engaged with each other.

Kurumi said Tweet looks good for being genuine while I look worse. I saw it scummy how Kurumi did not give thoughts on Tweet's post where it looked like he misrepped me that made me scum read him and for Kurumi to have an opinion on me she would have first need to have an opinion on Tweet's post I talked about. This looked like to me Kurumi was fabricating her post because there was no progression on her thought process about Tweet and me. I have asked her to respond to 2 of my posts and she avoids them. It was scummy when Kurumi sheeped T-Pein for saying I tried to save a scummate.

lol I freaking voted T-Pein in the end so I was barely "sheeping" him. All that stuff you asked me was already answered in previous posts and I´m tired to repeat myself for players who don´t want to read them.
All you are currently doing is some weak OMGUS on me.

Do you all think Ekko was a random kill or do you see that he was killed for other reasons? His main suspect seemed to be Cubey.
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
I think this needs consideration

Scum Tweet probably doesn't voluntarily take an easy ML off the board. He had already established suspicion on T-Pein. Why would he be planning to gain credit when he's in the position, first and foremost, of having to escape the lynch? Doesn't really make much sense.
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
After catching up I have to say that Tweet looks better to me now as his posts give me the impression of being genuine while Juliet looks worse now.

REMINDER TO ALL: The big problem is that we somehow have to get 11 votes on a single player to get a lynch, so imo 3 wagons should be reduced to 2, otherwise it´s highly likely that we fail.

This is also the reason why I was still not firing out my own vote. My main suspects are Dofla and Juliet right now but them getting enough votes is not gonna happen I guess, so it will most likely have to be T-Pein or Ultra for me. Unless we get another wagon started that stacks up enough votes rather quickly, the odds for this are not quite good though.

Most of the time T-Pein hasn´t contributed any stuff that convinced me but then he came up with the argument about Juliet trying to save her scummate. So at this point I´d say the lynch which could give us more infos about different players would indeed be Ultra.

Vote lynch Ultra

I´m sorry if he would be town but like I said an Ultra lynch could help us figuring out more about several other players. First day lynches are always hard so we should try to get the most information out of it that we could get. If Ultra flips scum Juliet looks really bad. Dofla and Natalija on the other hand would look better. If Ultra flips town Dofla looks worse and T-Pein would also not look that good. It would not clear Juliet but she would look less bad as she was obviously not trying to save him.

I think this post got cut off somewhere in the formatting of the Kurumi/Gram post.

I want to really emphasize this, because I think this a ripe stinker.
 

Kurumi

Preeminent
@Ultra Dude, before you call other player´s post "the worst post of the game" or "absolute stinkers" learn to make productive posts yourself first! You may spam a lot and there´s a lot of namecalling going on but qualitywise you´re not playing in that high league you see yourself in.

Maybe T-Pein was at least right with Juliet trying to save her scummate Ultra after all.
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
@Evans

Not going to do a big quote wall for this one, as I don’t have the time and I’m not really as sure about him as the other two, just going to post my impressions from re-reading him:

- What he got most credit for yesterday was his pushback on me. I think this is actually the most convincing part of his ISO since he looks aggressive, but nobody seemed to really address the context of where this push came from, namely:
  • Me and Evans were the two leading wagons at this point in time
  • Evans had shown some minor pushback to my questioning but the only read on me he had vocalized was town
  • He suddenly does a 180 “after further consideration” and just happens to arrive at me being scum, putting my wagon above his
In short, he was probably doing what was required of him to do. And after both our wagons dip, so does his need to push me as scum

- He's doing *way* more than what I'm accustomed to him doing, his progressions on other players come far more rapidly than in his previous games, he frequently doubles back and assigns reads for players in agreement with him. He's a serial tunneler and isn't quite showing that behavior. He’s making lists and tossing multiple players town reads, he’s doing a lot more to be seen and heard. In basically every game I’ve seen him play, he has a handful of suspects and he spends no less than multiple days tunneling them before he gets over them, if at all. Several players have noted he’s different as well.

- Playing positionally. By this I mean, he’s tossing town reads to players who agree with him and what thread direction he wants to take. Once he no longer had to push me to survive, he didn’t. He gives points to players who are doing things he likes, I don’t see much townsolving from him that isn’t some form of “I agree with these posts”

- Very self aware of his thread position and other players attacking him to a degree I'm not used to. His initial response to pressure from me was to point out how I don’t know his meta and how he was busy at work, but he also went out of his way to respond to Aurelian’s name drops as well.

- His interactions around Gram are very weird. In their early back and forth, Evans confusingly insinuated that Gram must have had a “good reason for his push”. Gram also was giving me a little pushback at the same time, and Evans’ suspicion basically evaporates by the time my case rolls around. Gram credits Evans pushback and then pivots to reading me as looking worse off.

- Is putting in more effort to secure his positions - this I think is a big one. Instead of shooting for the hip he's digging up quotes and shoring up all his cases in evidence. He clearly took a bit of time prepping that case on me. He also dug up T-Peins performance from last game, and then softened the blow with the conclusion that “it’s too obvious to be true”. He knows what impact this will have, but he’s just “putting it out there”. This is something I've done before as scum.
 

Ultra

THE BEAR
Advisor
@Ultra Dude, before you call other player´s post "the worst post of the game" or "absolute stinkers" learn to make productive posts yourself first! You may spam a lot and there´s a lot of namecalling going on but qualitywise you´re not playing in that high league you see yourself in.

Maybe T-Pein was at least right with Juliet trying to save her scummate Ultra after all.

k
 
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