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Game Elden Ring Mafia

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Black Pegged Dragon said:
Ultra Wagon: Lethal (Ultra), Arp (Poyser), Rugrat (Poyser), Tweet (Ekko) Evans (Ekko), Ratchet (Ultra), RDK (Ultra), Yoshi (Poyser), Alco (Ultra), Phenom (Poyser)
Non-Ultra Voters: BLD (Lethal-Poyser), TPein (Lethal-Poyser), Soulkiller (Lethal), Ekko (Lethal), CP (BPD), Doddsy (BPD)
Poyser Voters (For Reference): Phenom, Ultra, BLD, Tpein, Arp, Yoshi, Rugrat, Evans

So in D2, Ultra's wagon got to 11/12 needed votes. Out of those ten, only four stayed on Ultra until the end of D2 (Lethal, Ratchet, RDK, and Alco, who joined late on the Ultra wagon). Only five players did not place a vote on Ultra at EOD (BLD, Tpein, Soul, Ekko, Doddsy). Ratchet is confirmed town while Tweet has a mech confirm on his VT. I believe Arp and Yoshi are town based on reads (don't think anyone is really reading them otherwise). That leaves us six names on the Ultra wagon.

*Ratchet's case on Ultra came on post 4248 and the first vote is Lethal's at post 4290
**Poyser was the sixth vote on Ultra's wagon, but I didn't include him because he's dead harmful indie
***Should be noted, we got a VC when Lethal had eight votes and Ultra has six votes. Motivation might change seeing the actual VC in thread
****Ultra claims at post 4526 while L-2.
*****Poyser unvotes making it L-3 late in the day. This is where the wagon finally stalls out.

Scum POE: Lethal, Rugrat, Evans, RDK, Phenom, Alco
Lethal: Admittedly, in a world where Lethal is scum, he can only be the GF. While this is still possible, and I think it might just be, it is a bit of a lower percentage. Lethal was first on Ultra's wagon 42 posts after Ratchet's case.

Rugrat: Really jumped on Ultra's wagon without warning. Third on it.
- Rugrat was the the first to jump off Ultra's wagon, similarly without another word said. Put Ultra at L-3
- Comes back into play to drop the eleventh vote on Ultra and put him at L-1. I think that with his constant posts asking for time, he would have been aware of being close to hammering Ultra
- Rugrat also tried to angle shoot Ultra hard by posting a screenshot of Gram saying he hated hiders. Dirty trick and then Rugrat claims to not know what angle shoot means later
- This boy literally unvotes and makes it L-2. Feels like he's scared to be near hammer and wants to claim he was wary.

Evans: Fifth on the wagon but does justify it. Went from going at Lethal D1, coming around to Lethal's town meta, then votes Ultra with Lethal. Interesting progression to note.
- Second to jump off the wagon after it stalls for good and votes Ekko

RDK: Eighth vote on the wagon, so L-4 away from hammer. RDK would know this because the VC is a couple of posts above his and RDK voted Ultra immediately after Ratchet did and did not say anything.
- I think this is a pretty bad vote because he just drops it close to hammer and says nothing around Ultra's slot. RDK drops a reason on why he voted Ultra

Phenom: Tenth vote and putting Ultra at L-2. Was he convinced enough by Ratchet's case? I don't know. Was quick to move to Poyser when Ultra stalled out.
- After the wagon stalls, Phenom jumps off and votes Ekko

Alco: Ask who to vote for on post 4469 and on post 4504 RDK said Ultra. Alco comes in and votes for Ultra on post 4609 to put Ultra back at L-2. I find this fairly suss on both parties. RDK, who said he wasn't wary of Ultra until late, feels comfortable enough directing Alco, who hasn't been around and seemingly doesn't care about almost hammering a townie. Feels bad.


Town Claims (Ratchet, Tweet)
Tweet: Fourth on the wagon with no reason.
- Tweet did seem to have some concern about how quickly Ultra's wagon picked up
- Tweet bringing up caution around the speed of the wagon again

Ratchet: Seventh vote** on Ultra. No surprise there about being happy with a wagon being off his case.


Town Reads (Arp, Yoshi)
Arp: Voted Ultra out of the blue without any real reason leading into it and was the second vote on the wagon.
- Unvotes Ultra

Yoshi: Ninth vote on Ultra, putting him at L-3. Yoshi was pretty weird around this saying scum was bussing Ultra? I guess maybe he meant that it felt like there was scum on Ultra's push. He says suss stuff at times, but I think he's still just newbie.


Honestly the ones coming out the worst for their votes are Rugrat, RDK, and Alco.


Non-Ultra Voters (BLD, Tpein, Soul, Ekko, CP, Doddsy
BLD: I voted for Lethal and then ended up on Poyser. I never did want an Ultra vote other than to move the on with the game. Never did vote for him and thought he was pretty townie in D3.

TPein: Voted Lethal initially and never moved his vote until it went on Poyser. He did vote for Ultra D3 (I have to reread why). Definitely could be scum thinking they're not needed on the wagon.

Soulkiller: Voted Lethal after he read me and Ultra's case on him. He was busy IRL during this time.

Ekko: Voted Lethal and missed EOD.

CP: Voted for me. If we believe his claim, he's just town here.

Doddsy: Voted for me and I thought to read the whole thread and come to that conclusion, it was weak. Didn't move his vote off of me.


I think Tpein and Doddsy were the two worse of the non-Ultra voters.



For reference as well, here are the voters of Ultra's mislynch.

CP, Rugrat, RDK, Alco, Phenom, Tpein, Evans, Lethal, Doddsy, Arp, Big Man, Ratchet

CP, Tpein, Doddsy, and Big Man are the new voters.
Click to expand...
some of these links don't work for me but I went back and had a look and I'd say Rugrat's play on the wagon sticks out.

- votes without giving a reason after Evans and Arp voted. Rugrat has mentioned that he's sheeping people who he reads town or rates highly but neither were the case here. Ratchet did an iso and sussed him but it wasn't strong, don't really believe he was following that case.
- unvotes after the hider claim. would make sense to want the hider to use their role before lynching them. but then comes back like you said with the screenshot to rejoin the wagon. if he's happy to lynch a hider claim then why did he unovte in the first place unless he thinks the screenshot is a legit smoking gun which I don't believe he believes. important to note here that nobody else unvoted here after rugrat did so it could be that he initially assumed the wagon would fizzle out after the claim so got ahead of it and when it didn't he wanted to find a reason to get back on to ensure the lynch.
- the next day he wants to lynch ultra again, but this time he says he's following CP who is confirmed town. why is this his reasoning for lynching ultra now? this just makes me think he didn't have a reason in the first place for voting for him and now he has found a reason to justify the vote he is using that. bad look.
 
Retrolize said:
ill happily be the sacrificial lamb if im reading your intent correctly

it's scary how synchronized our tactics are despite coming to diff conclusions on scum hunting

if ur town, i trust in you to sort this better than i can
if ur scum, well played
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no no no none is sacrificing you. i need u with me

since tpein and ratchet died im going to need u and yoshi to step up as the vice town leaders

BLD and soul are a bit on vacation it seems so i cant rely on them yet

what im going to do is assign u a very important task. u will be the head of the indie hunting department

using ur high quality psychological skill. i want u to find who do u think has the highest chance to be playing like a serial killer

@Yoshi i am going to need u with me to find the scums. since u r unfamiliar with most of these players u will have unbiased opinions. i also think the intuitions of a new player is something that should be underestimated. i need u to take a look at the players alive and tell me who look scummy to u. start with those voting for u and engage with them to see if they r being genuine or not. i think some people r underestimating u and think u will be an easy mislynch. i would like for u to prove them wrong!
 
Ekkologix said:
no he can

rolewatching tells him that tweet is a vanilla

i agree that he probably wont use it on tweet and will instead use his time yea
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Who cares if Tweet is vanilla?

The same logic applies - only a scum role gets another players role from my experience. So he would never claim that he knew Tweet is vanilla.


Black Pegged Dragon said:
Alco's clear of Tweet felt TMI. Then he cleared me as well, which kind of doesn't make any sense? Why clear two names that had some heat on them?
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This is why I think there's more to this tbh. Doesn't seem a smart scum move to clear under-fire townies, and I don't think he'd fake-clear a teammate either.
 
Big Man said:
some of these links don't work for me but I went back and had a look and I'd say Rugrat's play on the wagon sticks out.

- votes without giving a reason after Evans and Arp voted. Rugrat has mentioned that he's sheeping people who he reads town or rates highly but neither were the case here. Ratchet did an iso and sussed him but it wasn't strong, don't really believe he was following that case.
- unvotes after the hider claim. would make sense to want the hider to use their role before lynching them. but then comes back like you said with the screenshot to rejoin the wagon. if he's happy to lynch a hider claim then why did he unovte in the first place unless he thinks the screenshot is a legit smoking gun which I don't believe he believes. important to note here that nobody else unvoted here after rugrat did so it could be that he initially assumed the wagon would fizzle out after the claim so got ahead of it and when it didn't he wanted to find a reason to get back on to ensure the lynch.
- the next day he wants to lynch ultra again, but this time he says he's following CP who is confirmed town. why is this his reasoning for lynching ultra now? this just makes me think he didn't have a reason in the first place for voting for him and now he has found a reason to justify the vote he is using that. bad look.
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i actually think rugrat is redeemable

you and alco almost certainly not

and that wud mean BLD is probably a wolf with RDK
 
Retrolize said:
well one psych theory will hopefully come to light when the game ends
(and it's one ive really wanted to test)
Click to expand...
so when people mention keywords unprompted or try to assume motive behind them, they're more likely projecting and distancing themselves away from their actual role in this game

this is really cool
 
Dalton said:
Who cares if Tweet is vanilla?

The same logic applies - only a scum role gets another players role from my experience. So he would never claim that he knew Tweet is vanilla.



This is why I think there's more to this tbh. Doesn't seem a smart scum move to clear under-fire townies, and I don't think he'd fake-clear a teammate either.
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then what do u suggest his claim is? a cop?
 
Ekkologix said:
no no no none is sacrificing you. i need u with me

since tpein and ratchet died im going to need u and yoshi to step up as the vice town leaders

BLD and soul are a bit on vacation it seems so i cant rely on them yet

what im going to do is assign u a very important task. u will be the head of the indie hunting department

using ur high quality psychological skill. i want u to find who do u think has the highest chance to be playing like a serial killer

@Yoshi i am going to need u with me to find the scums. since u r unfamiliar with most of these players u will have unbiased opinions. i also think the intuitions of a new player is something that should be underestimated. i need u to take a look at the players alive and tell me who look scummy to u. start with those voting for u and engage with them to see if they r being genuine or not. i think some people r underestimating u and think u will be an easy mislynch. i would like for u to prove them wrong!
Click to expand...
this is all dependent on ur flip

if you aren't night killed this plan is further complicated
 
Retrolize said:
this is all dependent on ur flip

if you aren't night killed this plan is further complicated
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no you dont need me to flip. im town u can read me like an open book right now. i gave everything i have on the table

i dont think im getting lynched either. that wud require the entire scum team to out themselves for it
 
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