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Game Elden Ring Mafia

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Evans said:
I'd rather Ekko then Doddsy, but I have Doddsy as a soft town lean.
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Could you outline what Doddsy has done for you to town lean him?

From my side he's posted a ton of meaningless busywork-type fluff, threw out a random list of reads on d2 and has still yet to explain his reasons for these reads despite me asking him to days ago, and I just don't buy his argument with Ekko at all - found it to be that sort of 'too structured and formulaic/lacking conviction' type stuff.
 
Thinking back after that long read back:

1. Lethal - town lean, since he stopped blowing up earlier he's seemed fairly willing to solve and with the weapon thing i lean town.
3. Rugrat - scum lean, process of elimination and he's as i said a while back he feels too 'passive' and detatched when he does post to be authentically hunting.
4. Phenom - Uncertain, I know I had that point against him but I can't find it skimming through my posts and otherwise he hasn't particualrly pinged me either way. Lurking a bit too much I guess so POE to investigate down the line i guess
5. Retrolize - town lean, i think he's just town blaine 2.0
6. Ekko - town lean, gut.
8. RDK - uncertain. really haven't developed much of an opinion of him either way which feels weird and im not sure how to feel about that.
11. CraigPelton - almost certain town.
13. Big Man - town lean, mostly for his point on Yoshi that was unique and good, and in general he has seemed solvy when he has shown his head.
15. Arp Bladstrum - null, with his weird pr thing he's mostly felt harmless and largely invisible - i guess i could town lean him since i imagine as a rookie he might have looked more suss if he was scum.
16. Evans - town lean, playing like i recall town evans to play with hyper-focusing on certain people, getting involved in weird angle-shooty-conspiracy stuff.
17. Dalton - superdupertown
18. Yoshi - scum lean, see Big Man point.
19. Doddsy - scum lean, feels phony and made fake reads.
20. Black Legged Dragon - town lean thanks to alco basically clearing him, if not for that i'd be very torn on this slot.
22. Soulkiller - scum lean, has been very quiet and lurky but seemed fake with his hyper-focus on flavour with the SK.
23. Alco - town lean, clearing people = good and would be a bold scum strategy which isnt really an alco thing to do.
 
RDK said:
I didn't shoot anyone last night. So my guess is natural vig, factional, sk?
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I actually forgot you had a weapon when working out who could have killed who.

But that's useful info - and yes, that would be my guess.
 
Black Pegged Dragon said:
D2
Ultra Wagon: Lethal (Ultra), Arp (Poyser), Rugrat (Poyser), Tweet (Ekko) Evans (Ekko), Ratchet (Ultra), RDK (Ultra), Yoshi (Poyser), Alco (Ultra), Phenom (Poyser)
Non-Ultra Voters: BLD (Lethal-Poyser), TPein (Lethal-Poyser), Soulkiller (Lethal), Ekko (Lethal), CP (BPD), Doddsy (BPD)
Poyser Voters (For Reference): Phenom, Ultra, BLD, Tpein, Arp, Yoshi, Rugrat, Evans

So in D2, Ultra's wagon got to 11/12 needed votes. Out of those ten, only four stayed on Ultra until the end of D2 (Lethal, Ratchet, RDK, and Alco, who joined late on the Ultra wagon). Only five players did not place a vote on Ultra at EOD (BLD, Tpein, Soul, Ekko, Doddsy). Ratchet is confirmed town while Tweet has a mech confirm on his VT. I believe Arp and Yoshi are town based on reads (don't think anyone is really reading them otherwise). That leaves us six names on the Ultra wagon.

*Ratchet's case on Ultra came on post 4248 and the first vote is Lethal's at post 4290
**Poyser was the sixth vote on Ultra's wagon, but I didn't include him because he's dead harmful indie
***Should be noted, we got a VC when Lethal had eight votes and Ultra has six votes. Motivation might change seeing the actual VC in thread
****Ultra claims at post 4526 while L-2.
*****Poyser unvotes making it L-3 late in the day. This is where the wagon finally stalls out.

Scum POE: Lethal, Rugrat, Evans, RDK, Phenom, Alco
Lethal: Admittedly, in a world where Lethal is scum, he can only be the GF. While this is still possible, and I think it might just be, it is a bit of a lower percentage. Lethal was first on Ultra's wagon 42 posts after Ratchet's case.

Rugrat: Really jumped on Ultra's wagon without warning. Third on it.
- Rugrat was the the first to jump off Ultra's wagon, similarly without another word said. Put Ultra at L-3
- Comes back into play to drop the eleventh vote on Ultra and put him at L-1. I think that with his constant posts asking for time, he would have been aware of being close to hammering Ultra
- Rugrat also tried to angle shoot Ultra hard by posting a screenshot of Gram saying he hated hiders. Dirty trick and then Rugrat claims to not know what angle shoot means later
- This boy literally unvotes and makes it L-2. Feels like he's scared to be near hammer and wants to claim he was wary.

Evans: Fifth on the wagon but does justify it. Went from going at Lethal D1, coming around to Lethal's town meta, then votes Ultra with Lethal. Interesting progression to note.
- Second to jump off the wagon after it stalls for good and votes Ekko

RDK: Eighth vote on the wagon, so L-4 away from hammer. RDK would know this because the VC is a couple of posts above his and RDK voted Ultra immediately after Ratchet did and did not say anything.
- I think this is a pretty bad vote because he just drops it close to hammer and says nothing around Ultra's slot. RDK drops a reason on why he voted Ultra

Phenom: Tenth vote and putting Ultra at L-2. Was he convinced enough by Ratchet's case? I don't know. Was quick to move to Poyser when Ultra stalled out.
- After the wagon stalls, Phenom jumps off and votes Ekko

Alco: Ask who to vote for on post 4469 and on post 4504 RDK said Ultra. Alco comes in and votes for Ultra on post 4609 to put Ultra back at L-2. I find this fairly suss on both parties. RDK, who said he wasn't wary of Ultra until late, feels comfortable enough directing Alco, who hasn't been around and seemingly doesn't care about almost hammering a townie. Feels bad.


Town Claims (Ratchet, Tweet)
Tweet: Fourth on the wagon with no reason.
- Tweet did seem to have some concern about how quickly Ultra's wagon picked up
- Tweet bringing up caution around the speed of the wagon again

Ratchet: Seventh vote** on Ultra. No surprise there about being happy with a wagon being off his case.


Town Reads (Arp, Yoshi)
Arp: Voted Ultra out of the blue without any real reason leading into it and was the second vote on the wagon.
- Unvotes Ultra

Yoshi: Ninth vote on Ultra, putting him at L-3. Yoshi was pretty weird around this saying scum was bussing Ultra? I guess maybe he meant that it felt like there was scum on Ultra's push. He says suss stuff at times, but I think he's still just newbie.


Honestly the ones coming out the worst for their votes are Rugrat, RDK, and Alco.


Non-Ultra Voters (BLD, Tpein, Soul, Ekko, CP, Doddsy
BLD: I voted for Lethal and then ended up on Poyser. I never did want an Ultra vote other than to move the on with the game. Never did vote for him and thought he was pretty townie in D3.

TPein: Voted Lethal initially and never moved his vote until it went on Poyser. He did vote for Ultra D3 (I have to reread why). Definitely could be scum thinking they're not needed on the wagon.

Soulkiller: Voted Lethal after he read me and Ultra's case on him. He was busy IRL during this time.

Ekko: Voted Lethal and missed EOD.

CP: Voted for me. If we believe his claim, he's just town here.

Doddsy: Voted for me and I thought to read the whole thread and come to that conclusion, it was weak. Didn't move his vote off of me.


I think Tpein and Doddsy were the two worse of the non-Ultra voters.



For reference as well, here are the voters of Ultra's mislynch.

CP, Rugrat, RDK, Alco, Phenom, Tpein, Evans, Lethal, Doddsy, Arp, Big Man, Ratchet

CP, Tpein, Doddsy, and Big Man are the new voters.
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I saw you ISOing my posts! So the theory I was holding that you're scum went out the window when I saw those gears turning.

And it's precisely what I was hoping someone would catch on to when I laid out the suspicions toward these voting patterns.

So, I was honestly expecting Ratchet to be scum (sorry bb) and it felt he was trying to set up a mislynch on you next day. I was 100% dead wrong on this theory.
It also depended entirely on Ekko possibly being night killed--which makes this much harder for me to think and process through.

I can't tell what's the move if I were to ISO posts: Ratchet is a strong player so it'd make sense to night kill him, but is he a strong enough player this game that could help us solve the puzzle pieces we're missing?

Ultra is probably likely on the money to solving this, gonna dig through his posts. I think if you're following my train of thought and my kooky little theories, look for my reaction theories or tesrs later.

I would say one fairly interesting detail is the people suddenly heavily sussing you (probably your day 1 wagon voters, too) are now more certain you're town after this. (No one is cleared except the dead, I'm still not 100% certain on you, but occam's razor is gonna have to guide me here in this case.)

So I went with this equation:
Ratchet + night survival + an Ekko night kill = Ratchet possibly scum, and the ones sussing Ekko may have had a hand in the mislynch opportunity on Ultra and NKing him

Clearly wrong, right?

Ekko + Ekko night survival + a Ratchet night kill = Ekko possibly scum, Ratchet being kept around as a strong town read to obfuscate everyone else's reads and give the illusion of safety/"confirmed" or people most likely Town

But that's really the biggest links I'm making here - there's parts of the equations I haven't stressed because I don't know how to read the new players
 
It could also just be multiple SK shots if my information could be taken literally:

Remember my info highlights TWO potential threats 'gathering strength':

The Great Serpent and the Lord of Blasphemy gather their strength, watching and waiting ...
 
RDK said:
I didn't shoot anyone last night. So my guess is natural vig, factional, sk?
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If I were to take you at face value, what would give the indication you didn't shoot?
Would your shots even be in the write-up? Convenient, if not
 
Retrolize said:
If I were to take you at face value, what would give the indication you didn't shoot?
Would your shots even be in the write-up? Convenient, if not
Click to expand...
k9SMl5L.png
 
Retrolize said:
I saw you ISOing my posts! So the theory I was holding that you're scum went out the window when I saw those gears turning.

And it's precisely what I was hoping someone would catch on to when I laid out the suspicions toward these voting patterns.

So, I was honestly expecting Ratchet to be scum (sorry bb) and it felt he was trying to set up a mislynch on you next day. I was 100% dead wrong on this theory.
It also depended entirely on Ekko possibly being night killed--which makes this much harder for me to think and process through.

I can't tell what's the move if I were to ISO posts: Ratchet is a strong player so it'd make sense to night kill him, but is he a strong enough player this game that could help us solve the puzzle pieces we're missing?

Ultra is probably likely on the money to solving this, gonna dig through his posts. I think if you're following my train of thought and my kooky little theories, look for my reaction theories or tesrs later.

I would say one fairly interesting detail is the people suddenly heavily sussing you (probably your day 1 wagon voters, too) are now more certain you're town after this. (No one is cleared except the dead, I'm still not 100% certain on you, but occam's razor is gonna have to guide me here in this case.)

So I went with this equation:
Ratchet + night survival + an Ekko night kill = Ratchet possibly scum, and the ones sussing Ekko may have had a hand in the mislynch opportunity on Ultra and NKing him

Clearly wrong, right?

Ekko + Ekko night survival + a Ratchet night kill = Ekko possibly scum, Ratchet being kept around as a strong town read to obfuscate everyone else's reads and give the illusion of safety/"confirmed" or people most likely Town

But that's really the biggest links I'm making here - there's parts of the equations I haven't stressed because I don't know how to read the new players
Click to expand...
I'm not following here - Ratchet hasn't been kept around?
 
RDK said:
It could also just be multiple SK shots if my information could be taken literally:

Remember my info highlights TWO potential threats 'gathering strength':

The Great Serpent and the Lord of Blasphemy gather their strength, watching and waiting ...
Click to expand...
I guess so, But Scum/SK/Vig is more likely. how many kills were there on N2 again?
 
RDK said:
It could also just be multiple SK shots if my information could be taken literally:

Remember my info highlights TWO potential threats 'gathering strength':

The Great Serpent and the Lord of Blasphemy gather their strength, watching and waiting ...
Click to expand...
The Great Serpent and Lord of Blasphemy are one and the same, also known as the demigod Rykard. A being of vast power and prodigious might
 
catching up
altho the building consensus people seem to have on ekko is kind of making me think i have this wrong too

we'll see
 
Dalton said:
huh
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OK my guy

In general, behaviorally:
Anyone can claim "I didn't shoot"
It's convenient, it's easy to just follow and it's most certainly easier to not be able to pick apart

If someone claims they shot someone, a particular player, they place themselves in a position that means they do have to explain why they went out and shot Town
And if they happened to shoot Town in the assumption that the player was scum, someone wouldn't feel guilt or worry about perception, they'd share their results regardless of how bad it looks.

Claiming someone didn't take the shot toward 3 dead bodies is easy.
But it doesn't provide any info. If you have a chance of shooting scum or using a weapon against them, why would you not use it?

If someone is holding back info, it's more likely they're concerned about their image and if they'll be perceived as town, this kind of behavior points to fear rather than any definitive info.

And why should we, as town, immediately follow a claim by someone and assume that claim is truthful? Excluding meta play and reasonings here

What is the reason any claim should be taken at face value? What are the reasons for these claims, what do they look like, where do they lead to?
 
Retrolize said:
OK my guy

In general, behaviorally:
Anyone can claim "I didn't shoot"
It's convenient, it's easy to just follow and it's most certainly easier to not be able to pick apart

If someone claims they shot someone, a particular player, they place themselves in a position that means they do have to explain why they went out and shot Town
And if they happened to shoot Town in the assumption that the player was scum, someone wouldn't feel guilt or worry about perception, they'd share their results regardless of how bad it looks.

Claiming someone didn't take the shot toward 3 dead bodies is easy.
But it doesn't provide any info. If you have a chance of shooting scum or using a weapon against them, why would you not use it?

If someone is holding back info, it's more likely they're concerned about their image and if they'll be perceived as town, this kind of behavior points to fear rather than any definitive info.

And why should we, as town, immediately follow a claim by someone and assume that claim is truthful? Excluding meta play and reasonings here

What is the reason any claim should be taken at face value? What are the reasons for these claims, what do they look like, where do they lead to?
Click to expand...
OK your first post was just worded weirdly.

We know RDK has a weapon now so if he did shoot, we can easily prove that by telling him "shoot x tonight" - then if he doesn't shoot them tonight, we know he was lying.

Therefore, its stupid to lie about this even if he's scum.
 
Retrolize said:
OK my guy

In general, behaviorally:
Anyone can claim "I didn't shoot"
It's convenient, it's easy to just follow and it's most certainly easier to not be able to pick apart

If someone claims they shot someone, a particular player, they place themselves in a position that means they do have to explain why they went out and shot Town
And if they happened to shoot Town in the assumption that the player was scum, someone wouldn't feel guilt or worry about perception, they'd share their results regardless of how bad it looks.

Claiming someone didn't take the shot toward 3 dead bodies is easy.
But it doesn't provide any info. If you have a chance of shooting scum or using a weapon against them, why would you not use it?

If someone is holding back info, it's more likely they're concerned about their image and if they'll be perceived as town, this kind of behavior points to fear rather than any definitive info.

And why should we, as town, immediately follow a claim by someone and assume that claim is truthful? Excluding meta play and reasonings here

What is the reason any claim should be taken at face value? What are the reasons for these claims, what do they look like, where do they lead to?
Click to expand...
I thought about saying I killed Tweet even though I didn't tbh
 
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